State of the Art of Multihazard Design - University at Buffalobruneau/ASCE 2017 State of the Art... · State of the Art of Multihazard Design Michel Bruneau, ... interest in blast-resistant - [PDF Document] (2024)

State of the Art of Multihazard Design - University at Buffalobruneau/ASCE 2017 State of the Art...· State of the Art of Multihazard Design Michel Bruneau, ... interest in blast-resistant - [PDF Document] (1)

60th Anniversary State-of-the-Art Reviews

State of the Art of Multihazard DesignMichel Bruneau, F.ASCE1; Michele Barbato, M.ASCE2; Jamie E. Padgett, A.M.ASCE3;Arash E. Zaghi, M.ASCE4; Judith Mitrani-Reiser, A.M.ASCE5; and Yue Li, M.ASCE6

Abstract: This paper provides perspectives on multihazard engineering in the contemporary structural engineering context in order to framethe breadth and multiple dimensions it encompasses, to summarize recent activities on selected relevant topics, and to highlight possiblefuture directions in research and implementations. A comprehensive overview of all research and points of view on these broad topics isbeyond the scope of this paper. Rather, the objective is to provide selected examples to illustrate the nature of the issues and possible solutions,with the understanding that multihazard design is a relatively new endeavor and that the accomplishments in this field for the most part lieahead. Topics covered include description of the political context that led to multihazard design, review of current return periods and safetyindices for various hazards in model design codes, issues related to hazard interaction and cascading effects, considerations for interdependentsystems, and structural element optimization to provide multihazard resistance. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001893. © 2017American Society of Civil Engineers.

Author keywords: Special design issues; Multihazard design; Risk assessment; Risk mitigation; State-of-the-art.

Introduction

Structural engineers have designed structures to resist a broad rangeof static and dynamic loads and to survive many different extremeevents without collapse (for the purpose of ensuring life safetyrather than preservation of the structure). This approach is funda-mentally at the root of structural engineering—a practice even pre-dating the naming of the profession—and nowadays is embodied indesign codes and specifications. However, multihazard design, ascurrently termed, is not only that. Multihazard design addresses anumber of issues, ranging from the interactions and interdependen-cies of hazards and their cumulative damaging effects on structuresto the development of new design concepts and structural systemsto ensure inherently efficient outcomes that suitably address theoften conflicting demands related to multiple hazards. It does soirrespective of design approach; even when performance-based de-sign has been used to establish structural performance beyond lifesafety, it typically has focused on hazards individually rather thanholistically.

In most fields of professional endeavor, be it emergencyresponders, insurance and reinsurance companies, or even struc-tural engineers, the consideration of multiple hazards requires some

initial decisions as to which specific hazards deserve consideration,and how much time and resources can reasonably be spent to pro-vide an acceptable level of protection to property and/or humanlife. This typically has been implicitly or explicitly done on thebasis of what constitutes a real or perceived threat at a specific pointin time. For example, in the first few years following the events ofSeptember 11, 2001 (9-11), interest in blast-resistant design grew,and the level of such interest is likely to fluctuate as a function ofthe number of terrorist attacks occurring domestically over the nextfew years.

In some disciplines, accounting for some of the most arcanehazards can be easily accommodated. For example, homeownerand business insurance policies typically provide coverage againstdamage due to debris falling from outer space, such as asteroids,meteors, and even artificial satellites, but because the probability ofsuch impact at any given location is so low, this effectively hasno consequence on premiums. However, for structural engineers,considering impact forces from space debris for regular buildingswould be a major undertaking, if not an impossible one from adeterministic perspective. Therefore the probabilistic determinationof whether any hazard warrants consideration is achieved implicitlythrough the minimum requirements provided in design codes andstandards (embodying the consensus professional opinion ofpeers), although it sometimes extends beyond that framework whenrequired by client-specific needs. As a result, it is accepted thatsimple structures generally are designed only to address the con-ditions most likely to occur, such as dead loads, live loads, temper-ature changes, rain/snow/ice, fires, wind forces, and earthquakes. Italso is accepted that structures having a strategic purpose or whosefailures would have enormous undesirable consequences would bedesigned to survive rarer events, such as accidental or deliberateblasts, tsunamis, impact forces (due to collision with trucks, boats,and even, in some cases, airplanes), and others, with the under-standing that some forms of damage may be acceptable.

Although this engineering philosophy in many ways is soundand undoubtedly has served society well in managing the resourcesof owners and communities, the general public often is surprised todiscover, after a damaging specific hazard occurs, that structuralengineering coverage is not as extensive as expected, and definitelynot all-hazards comprehensive (except in those circ*mstances

1Professor, Univ. at Buffalo-SUNY, Ketter Hall, #212, Buffalo,NY 14260 (corresponding author). ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1170-468X. E-mail: [emailprotected]

2Associate Professor, Louisiana State Univ., 3316R Patrick F. Taylor,Baton Rouge, LA 70803. E-mail: [emailprotected]

3Associate Professor, Rice Univ., 6100 Main St., Houston, TX 77005.E-mail: [emailprotected]

4Assistant Professor, Univ. of Connecticut, 261 Glenbrook Rd., Storrs,CT 06269. E-mail: [emailprotected]

5Assistant Professor, Johns Hopkins Univ., 3400 North Charles St.,Baltimore, MD 21218. E-mail: [emailprotected]

6Associate Professor, Case Western Reserve Univ., 10900 Euclid Ave.,Cleveland, OH, 44106. E-mail: [emailprotected]

Note. This manuscript was submitted on November 30, 2016; approvedon May 17, 2017; published online on July 25, 2017. Discussion periodopen until December 25, 2017; separate discussions must be submittedfor individual papers. This paper is part of the Journal of StructuralEngineering, © ASCE, ISSN 0733-9445.

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where the owners actively have been involved in deciding the levelof damage for which they are willing to pay, which is the exceptionrather than the norm, as demonstrated by past earthquakes).Multihazard design provides opportunities to revisit some aspectsof structural engineering practice and investigate new ones, to bet-ter understand how to effectively address and enhance many of thedesign issues generated by a holistic consideration of hazards indesign.

As such, this paper provides some perspectives on what multi-hazard engineering is in the contemporary context, in order toframe the breadth and multiple dimensions it encompasses, to sum-marize some recent activities on selected relevant topics, and tohighlight possible future directions in research and implementa-tions. A comprehensive overview of all research and points of viewon these broad topics is beyond the scope of this paper. Rather, theobjective is to provide selected examples to illustrate the nature ofthe issues and possible solutions, with the understanding that multi-hazard design is a relatively new endeavor and that the accomplish-ments in this field for the most part lie ahead.

Following a brief review of the political context that hasemboldened multihazard design, a brief survey of recent researchon the following topics is presented: (1) current return periods andsafety indices for various hazards in model design codes; (2) hazardinteraction and cascading effects; (3) considerations for inter-dependent systems; and (4) structural system and element optimi-zation to provide multihazard resistance.

In the context of multihazard design of structures, it is importantto present a clear terminology. In the current literature, design formultihazard resilience, design for multihazard robustness, anddesign for multihazard mitigation are terms that are used inter-changeably. Although this terminology essentially is used to com-municate the same concept, particular attention should be paid topreventing ambiguity. To this end, Zaghi et al. (2016) presented adefinition of terms. They defined resilience as an ability to recoverquickly from or adjust easily to misfortune or change; for example,during an earthquake, a seismic-resilient building may suffer onlyminimal damage (i.e., local yielding of beams), which easily can berepaired to recover its functionality. Resistance refers to character-istics of a structural system to withstand the effects of a damagingexternal stressor, such as high wind loads or a corrosive environ-ment. Robustness implies the capability of a structural system tomaintain its function without failure under a broad range of con-ditions, or a property of allowing the severity of damage to be mini-mized in other instances.Mitigation means reducing the severity ofa negative action or effect. In a robust system, the goal is to min-imize or prevent damage in the first place; however, in a resilientsystem, some level of damage is anticipated, but an additional ob-jective is that the system should recover efficiently. Mitigation maybe achieved through design for resilience or robustness of a systemor by diminishing the damaging effect of the hazards themselves,independent of their impact on a system. Mitigation measures thusare broader than provisions for robustness and resiliency, whichmay focus mainly on passive improvement of system responses tohazards.

Grand Challenges for Disaster Reduction

Within the realm of policy making, the necessity to consider allhazards that could produce national disasters has been long recog-nized, as evidenced for example by the creation in 1988 of theSubcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR). The SDR is a federalinteragency body mandated to advise the White House’s Office ofScience and Technology Policy (OSTP) about the risk reduction

resources of its 15 chartered federal departments and agencies: De-partment of Defense (DoD), Department of Energy (DoE), Depart-ment of Homeland Security (DHS), Department of Transportation(DoT), National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA), NationalScience Foundation (NSF), and many more (SDR 2016). The SDRhas formulated lists of challenges that must be addressed to imple-ment disaster reduction for coastal inundation, drought, earthquake,flood, heat wave, human and ecosystem health, hurricane, landslideand debris flow, space weather, technological disasters, tornado,tsunami, volcano, wildland fire, and winter storm, all broughttogether under an overarching Grand Challenges for DisasterReduction plan formulated in 2005 (SDR 2005). These lists of chal-lenges consider each hazard independently. In parallel, researchaddressing individual hazards has taken place in the last decadesto various degrees, through funding from these agencies and vari-ous other sources. As a possibly unmatched example, the NationalEarthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), enacted in1977 as a result of political pressure following the damaging 1964Alaska and 1971 San Fernando earthquakes (Hamilton 2003), hasinvested approximately $3 billion in earthquake-related mitigationand paredness activities, from $50 million=year in 1978, up toroughly $120 million=year more recently (U.S. Congress 1995;NEHRP 2014).

At the turn of the century, the collapse of the World Trade Centersubsequent to the 9-11 terrorist attack, and devastation along theGulf Coast due to Hurricane Katrina, shifted the political climate.Many in the earthquake engineering community felt that some ofthe substantial knowledge that had been created through decadesof NEHRP-funded research to address problems related to earth-quakes could be extended to enhance resilience against otherhazards. One expression of this perception was articulated in awhite paper written under the auspices of the MultidisciplinaryCenter for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER), whichvolunteered perspectives that should be considered in the formu-lation of a national research strategy for disaster loss reductionin response to the SDR Grand Challenges for Disaster Reductionreport (Bruneau et al. 2005). It stated

A critical part of this research effort should focus on the mit-igation of, and response to, the impact of extreme events oncritical facilities and lifelines. The failure of these key infra-structure systems is the cause of most of the disruption duringand following disasters. In this context, national needs requirethat solutions be integrated across various hazards. However,the objective to achieve a synergy of solutions across the con-tinuum of hazards is something that has just barely begun to beexploited or even investigated.

The white paper’s executive summary recommended ten re-search initiatives, which remain timely and critical active researchendeavors at the time of this writing. Five of the initiatives are di-rectly relevant to structural engineering:1. “Develop intelligent or ‘smart’ public buildings and lifelines

that provide real-time monitoring and decision making that isuseful for both regular maintenance purposes and also for oc-cupant safety, security and health monitoring to allow for rapidevacuation in the event collapse is imminent and for locatingsurvivors within collapsed structures.”

2. “Develop reliable methods to design structures to meet severalspecific performance levels under increasing levels of hazardintensity, providing design/retrofit concepts from a multihazardperspective and overcoming the shortcomings of purely ‘life-safety’ design procedures.”

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3. “Investigate how new materials and advanced technologiesdeveloped for seismic retrofit can be modified or adapted toprovide enhanced resilience of various critical facilities andlifelines against other hazards.”

4. “Identify new mitigation strategies and technologies that canprovide simultaneous protection against more than one hazard,for a single cost, and similarly develop new technologies thatachieve the broadest possible level of protection at the least pos-sible cost, aiming at more uniform, nationwide adoption of thesetechnologies.”

5. “Develop technologies to prevent cascading failures of complexlifeline systems that duly consider proximity of critical infra-structures, interoperability of various lifeline systems, and inter-actions among the institutions operating the lifeline networks,for a broad range of natural, technological and human-inducedhazards.”Several of the other five recommendations not presented here

benefit from multidisciplinary teaming including input by the struc-tural engineering community. Furthermore, the recommendationsto expand the resilience framework presented in Bruneau et al.(2003) to various hazards already has been adopted and expandedupon by various researchers and government agencies [e.g., seeCimellaro (2016) for a comprehensive discussion on resilience].

Whereas Hurricane Katrina led to a resurgence of research fund-ing focused on wind engineering and storm surge, the 9-11 eventsbroadened activities in the fields of blast-resistant design, collapseprevention, fire engineering, and the interaction of these hazardsamong themselves and with other hazards. However, a structuralengineering solution is not always the best solution for all hazards.In fact, for the hazard of plane collisions, the logical solution lay inbetter-securing access to the co*ckpits of airplanes; gone are the dayswhen passengers were welcome to visit the pilot—or even sit in theco*ckpit during landing, a courtesy that the first author once expe-rienced on a commercial flight in a more casual era. Even thoughsignificant advances have taken place to address the needed integra-tion of solutions across hazards, the objective to achieve a synergyof solutions across the continuum of hazards remains something thathas just barely begun to be exploited or even investigated.

Subsequent sections of this paper explore some of these accom-plishments and opportunities. The paper emphasizes topics that caninvolve structural engineering activities. For example, a review ofthe extensive remote-sensing technologies developed for earth-quake reconnaissance that already have proven their value for otherhazards (e.g., Adams and Eguchi 2008; Adams and McMillan2008; Gusella et al. 2008; McMillan et al. 2008; Womble et al.2008) is beyond the scope of this paper. Likewise, although 9-11and Hurricane Katrina acted as catalysts for multihazard integra-tion in policy making, emergency preparedness, responders’ activ-ities, and social science research (to name a few), and many fundingagencies recognized the need and seized this opportunity to ex-pand their activities/research/operations/planning in these fields toachieve readiness for multiple hazards, those endeavors are not corestructural engineering activities and therefore are beyond the scopeof this paper.

Cross-Hazard Synergies

Optimistically, it can be expected that reducing vulnerabilityagainst a set number of extreme events will simultaneously resultin infrastructures that are robust when subjected to other extremeevents or even service conditions. However, realistically, this re-duced vulnerability for a subset of hazards is not by itself a guar-antee for reduced vulnerability to a different set of hazards. With

respect to extreme events, although it has been argued or demon-strated that certain types of seismically designed structural systemscan indirectly provide benefits against damage or progressive col-lapse due to some blast scenarios (e.g., Corley et al. 1998; Yi et al.2014), some solutions commonly used to provide resilience againstspecific hazards can be detrimental to performance when subjectedto other hazards. For example, adding mass is deemed an excellentsolution to enhance blast resistance and reduce wind uplift, but ad-ditional mass translates into greater inertial forces when it comes toseismic resistance. Likewise, a bridge that is highly robust againstblast loads and earthquakes still could be too buoyant to performadequately during a tsunami or storm surge. When it comes toservice conditions, the best design strategies to achieve robustnessagainst multiple hazards still could be implemented with poordetails prone to accelerated corrosion or fatigue failure. Thus,although it is true that enhanced integrity and ductility will resultfrom the design of more robust and resilient structures, one shouldbe suspicious of broad generalizations suggesting that expectedindirect benefits alone are sufficient to obviate a holistic approachto multihazard design.

Nonetheless, with the above caveat, it remains possible in somecases to identify synergies between hazards that make an integratedmultihazard design approach possible. For example, one cannotmiss the similarities in bridge span collapses observed after stormsurge and earthquakes, illustrated in Figs. 1 and 2, respectively.Although the demands that led to these failures were dramaticallydifferent, the vulnerability of bridge bearings to those two hazardswas expressed in similar failure modes, which inescapably suggeststhat a multihazard solution could be developed to enhance perfor-mance in both cases. As a result, the viability of translating specificdesign details or retrofits typically used to target improved perfor-mance under one hazard has been suggested for mitigating theadverse effects of others (Padgett et al. 2008).

Although the goal of multihazard engineering is to holisti-cally approach the conflicting demands and complex interaction ef-fects of different hazards in search of unified solutions, it wouldappear that some hazards are more compatible than others when

Fig. 1. Similarities in bridge span collapses observed: (a) after the1964 Niigata earthquake (reproduced from Steinbrugge Collection,NISEE-PEER, University of California, Berkeley, with permissionfrom NISEE-PEER); (b) following the 2005 Hurricane Katrina stormsurge near New Orleans (across Lake Pontchartrain) (reprinted fromO’Connor and McAnary 2008, photo used with permission, courtesyof MCEER)

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considering structural design. As an example of possibly lowercompatibility, structures generally are designed to elastically resistthe demands from long-duration, low-frequency hurricane winds,whereas inelastic response is relied upon to survive short-duration,high-frequency, and large-amplitude extreme earthquake and blastforces. In some cases, design parameters optimal for one hazardmay be at odds with another, and hence a trade-off in design param-eter selection may be made, referred to in the literature as a case ofcompeting hazards (Padgett and Kameshwar 2016). However, incontrast, some synergy may be possible when designing concur-rently for blast and earthquake forces, even though blasts typicallyimpart inelastic demands in a more localized and asymmetric man-ner than earthquakes do, and even though the dynamic excitationcreated by blast and earthquakes are dramatically different in du-ration and frequency content, and induce responses at significantlydifferent strain rates (Stewart and Durant 2016). Although this syn-ergy definitely is true at the element level of design (as is shown in alater section of this paper), it is less conclusive at the system levelfor complex structures depending on design approaches and forcombinations of hazards considered. For example, in case studiesfor a 49-story building, Freeman et al. (2005) found that a multi-hazard design, when the final structural system was selected con-sidering wind and seismic effects simultaneously, led to 3.5%

savings of the total cost of the structural system. Those case studiesalso showed that retrofitting the building to enhance its blast resis-tance alone could translate into a higher lifecycle cost, becausedoing so would detrimentally affect its seismic performance.

Future studies are needed to determine how multihazard inter-actions can affect total structure costs, particularly from a lifecycleperspective, and to shed light on which conditions must exist toachieve beneficial synergies between hazards. From this perspec-tive, it is interesting to note that the federally funded research port-folio on structural engineering research related to hazards currentlyis distributed across various agencies, with blast-resilient designunder DHS, fire-resilient design under the National Institute ofStandards and Technology (NIST), and NSF specifically excludingthose hazards from its own research portfolio and largely focusingits multihazard research funding on wind and earthquake engineer-ing (although NIST and DHS are expanding their portfolios towardaddressing other hazards). This focus separation could create chal-lenges for researchers interested in tackling multihazard researchmore holistically. The fact that some of these hazards are cascadingevents, and thus are inextricably interrelated, further complicatesthe situation (Li et al. 2012a; Zaghi et al. 2016).

Finally, the words multihazard design sometimes are misunder-stood to refer narrowly to protection against concurrent multiplehazards at their most damaging intensity or near that level. Thisis not the case. In fact, in many situations this concurrence scenariogenerally is explicitly excluded from consideration [e.g., Tobiaset al. (2014) for Accelerated Bridge Construction (ABC)] and israrely considered in design unless the severity of consequenceswarrants it and/or the owner’s financial investments or resourcescan justify it. Traditionally, this position has been supported bythe limited studies that have investigated this issue for extremeevents of relatively limited durations, because the probability oftwo severe extreme events occurring at damaging levels is quite low(e.g., Shinozuka et al. 1984; Bhartia and Vanmarcke 1988; Kafaliand Grigoriu 2008). As demonstrated in the following sections ofthis paper, the scope of multihazard design is more complex andbroader than the above erroneous and narrow interpretation.

Structural Engineering Issues

Within the realm of structural engineering, the pursuit of multiha-zard design has proceeded on a number of fronts. The followingsections present a summary of recent findings in select fields.

Current Return Periods and Safety Indices for VariousHazards in Model Design Codes

Return periods are the basis for the design events that are stipulatedin model design codes, such as ASCE 7-10 (ASCE 2010), but todate the approaches taken to characterize them have not been uni-form. The following review of recent practice highlights some ofthe discrepancies in approaches.

Currently, the return periods associated with natural hazardsthat can cause significant economic losses, social disruption, anddowntime in the local business community differ for a numberof reasons. For example, the design return period for wind hazardtypically is shorter than that for earthquakes, for many economical,engineering, and pragmatic reasons; e.g., because the threat to lifesafety from hurricanes is mitigated by advanced warning systems(Li and Ellingwood 2009). In comparison, the lack of advancedwarning makes the life-safety objective paramount for earthquakes(Li and van de Lindt 2012). In addition, structural responses aremore predictable and mainly linear for structural members in themain frame of buildings under wind loads, whereas the responses

Fig. 2. Similarities in damage to bridge bearings observed: (a) after the2005 Hurricane Katrina storm surge near New Orleans (across LakePontchartrain) (reprinted from O’Connor and McAnary 2008, photoused with permission, courtesy of MCEER); (b) after the 1995 Kobeearthquake (image by Michel Bruneau)

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may be nonlinear under severe earthquakes. It should be notedthat the response of elements such as those in the envelope systemcan be complex during both hurricanes and earthquakes. The designwind speed defined by the peak 3-s gust wind in ASCE 7-98 (ASCE1998) through ASCE 7-05 (ASCE 2005) was based on a 50-yearreturn period for areas in the central United States, whereas alongthe coast it corresponded roughly to a 100-year return period forthe Allowable Strength Design (ASD) method and 700-year returnperiod for the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) method(Li and Ellingwood 2009). Note that the 3-s gust wind speed wasintroduced in ASCE 7-95 (ASCE 1995) to replace fastest-mile windspeeds. Starting in ASCE 7-10, Risk Category replaced the termOccupancy Category. There are four Risk Categories, ranging fromlowest hazard to human life (Category I) to highest hazard to humanlife (Category IV). Table 1.5-1 in ASCE 7-10 defines the risk catego-ries of buildings and other structures subjected to flood, wind, snow,earthquake, and ice hazards, which are based on the risk associatedwith unacceptable performance (ASCE 2010).

ASCE 7-10 wind maps were based on the LRFD-method windspeeds, as opposed to the ASD-method wind speeds that were usedin the previous ASCE 7 specifications. The goal was to provide amore consistent and uniform reliability under various loading con-ditions (ASCE 7-10). ASCE 7-10 introduced three new basic windspeed maps with much longer return periods, including a 300-yearreturn period, or 15% probability of exceedance in 50 years forRisk Category I; a 700-year return period, or 7% probability of ex-ceedance in 50 years for Risk Category II; and a 1,700-year returnperiod, or 3% probability of exceedance in 50 years for RiskCategories III and IV. Consequently, the factor for wind load to usein the load combination listed in Section 2.3.2 of ASCE 7-10(ASCE 2010) changed from 1.6 to 1.0. The Applied TechnologyCouncil (ATC) provides a website (http://www.atcouncil.org/windspeed/) that lists site-specific wind requirements (includingwind speed values for return periods of 10, 25, 50, 100, 300, 700and 1,700 years) or any specific location in the United States.

Until recently (i.e., from ASCE 7-05), the ground motionparameters for seismic design were set as those correspondingto earthquakes having a return period of 475 years. Conversely,seismic hazard maps were provided in terms of spectral accelera-tion for a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years [abbreviatedhere as a 2%/50-year event and termed the Maximum ConsideredEarthquake (MCE) in ASCE 7-05], corresponding to a 2,475-yearreturn period. The design spectral acceleration shall be taken as 2/3of the seismic intensity corresponding to the MCE and adjustedfor site class effects. Starting with ASCE 7-10, the uniform-hazardground motion (2% probability in 50-year seismic hazard level)was replaced by a risk-targeted (e.g., 1% probability of collapse in50-year) ground motion (Luco et al. 2007; FEMA 2009).

For flooding, the return period is 100 years, which is equivalentto the flood having a 1% probability of exceedance in any givenyear (ASCE 2010). Snow loads were developed from a statisticalanalysis of weather records of snow on the ground (Ellingwood andRedfield 1983), which have a 50-year return period (2% annualprobability of exceedance).

The minimum design loads for structures need to include theapplicable importance factors given in Table 1.5-2 of ASCE 7-10for seismic, snow, and ice loads (Table 1). The importance factorsfor wind loads have been deleted with the adoption of the new windhazard maps that consider the different return periods associatedwith various risk categories, as discussed previously.

In probability-based limit state design, the reliability index, β,is related to the probability of failure by Pf ¼ Φð−βÞ, where Φdenotes the standard normal cumulative distribution function.The reliability benchmarks differ for various limit states. When thefailure mode is relatively ductile and consequences are not serious,β typically is in the range of 2.5–3.0. In comparison, when the fail-ure mode is brittle and consequences are severe, β is at least 4.0.The target reliabilities are based on a survey of reliabilities inherentin existing design practice. The load factors presented in Section2.3.2 of ASCE 7-10 and the resistance factors in the LRFD methodwere determined to meet these reliability objectives (Ellingwoodet al. 1982; Galambos et al. 1982; ASCE 2010). Specifically, theload combinations and the companion resistances should pro-vide reliabilities approximately similar to those indicated in TablesC.1.3.1a and C1.3.1b of ASCE 7-10, which are shown in Tables 2and 3. Table 2 provides the reliability indexes, β, for a 50-yearservice period, whereas the probabilities of failure have been an-nualized. Table 3 shows the anticipated reliability for earthquakeloading, in which the probability of failure is a conditional prob-ability on maximum considered earthquake shaking or maximumconsidered effects.

The AASHTO codes for transportation facilities followed con-siderations similar to those used to develop load and resistancefactors, and reliability indices for buildings and other structuresin the different versions of ASCE 7. In particular, Nowak (1993,1995) and Nowak et al. (1994) provided the probabilistic basisfor the development of LRFD in the AASHTO manual for rating(AASHTO 2003) and design (AASHTO 2004) of highway bridges.

Table 2. Acceptable Reliability (Maximum Annual Probability of Failure) and Associated Reliability Indexes (β) for Load Conditions That Do Not IncludeEarthquake: Occupancy Category (Reprinted from ASCE 2010, Table C.1.3.1a, © ASCE)

Basis I II III IV

Failure that is not sudden and does notlead to widespread progression of damage

PF ¼ 1.25 × 10−4=year PF ¼ 3.0 × 10−5=year PF ¼ 1.25 × 10−5=year PF ¼ 5.0 × 10−6=yearβ ¼ 2.5 β ¼ 3.0 β ¼ 3.25 β ¼ 3.5

Failure that is either sudden or leads towidespread progression of damage

PF ¼ 3.0 × 10−5=year PF ¼ 5.0 × 10−6=year PF ¼ 2.0 × 10−6=year PF ¼ 7.0 × 10−7=yearβ ¼ 3.0 β ¼ 3.5 β ¼ 3.75 β ¼ 4.0

Failure that is sudden and results inwidespread progression of damage

PF ¼ 5.0 × 10−6=year PF ¼ 7.0 × 10−7=year PF ¼ 2.5 × 10−7=year PF ¼ 1.0 × 10−7=yearβ ¼ 3.5 β ¼ 4.0 β ¼ 4.25 β ¼ 4.5

Table 1. Importance Factors by Risk Category of Buildings and OtherStructures for Snow, Ice, and Earthquake Loads (Reprinted from ASCE2010, Table 1.5-2, © ASCE)

Riskcategoryfrom Table1.5-1

Snowimportancefactor, Is

Iceimportance

factor—thickness,Ii

Iceimportance

factor—wind,Iw

Seismicimportancefactor, Ie

I 0.80 0.80 1.00 1.00II 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00III 1.10 1.25 1.00 1.25IV 1.20 1.25 1.00 1.50

Note: The component importance factor, I, applicable to earthquake loads,is not included in this table because it is dependent on the importance of theindividual component rather than that of the building as a whole, or itsoccupancy. Refer to Section 13.1.3 (ASCE 2010).

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The treatment of hazards generally has been similar to what wasdescribed previously for buildings, but with some differences inemphasis, analysis, and design approaches, and not necessarily inagreement.

Most areas of the world are subjected to one or more inde-pendent natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes(cyclones), snow storms, costal inundation, and/or river flooding(Corotis 2007; Li et al. 2012a). For example, in Charleston, SouthCarolina both hurricane and earthquake hazards pose a threat to thebuilt environment (Li and Ellingwood 2009), even though the prob-ability of both hazards occurring simultaneously is virtually zero.In such areas, building design and construction practices shouldaddress both hazards in an integrated manner. Li and Ellingwood(2009) compared the damage risk due to both hazards based onhazard return period, design parameters (wind speed versus spectralacceleration), and annual probability of damage for eight locationsin the United States. Fig. 3 shows the probability of hurricane andearthquake damage to a residence with the minimum constructionpractices in Charleston as a function of the return period.

Wen and Kang (2001) proposed a general lifecycle cost analysisframework for buildings subject to single and multiple hazards.This framework can be used to minimize the expected total lifecyclecost of a building given the design load and resistance. It explicitlyaccounts for (1) load and resistance variability; (2) costs of con-struction, maintenance, and failure consequences; (3) discountingcost over time; and (4) structural life length. The authors found thatfor multiple hazards the optimal design generally is controlled byhazards that have large uncertainty and/or severe failure consequen-ces. Salman and Li (2016) presented a framework for multihazardrisk assessment of electric power systems subjected to seismic andhurricane wind hazards. The framework included hazard and struc-tural component vulnerability models, system reliability analysis,and multihazard risk assessment. Potra and Simiu (2009) examined

how to achieve safer and more economical designs for structuresexposed to multiple hazards. Li and van de Lindt (2012) summa-rized a loss-based formulation to evaluate the risk to buildings frommultiple hazards. Table 4 shows the annual probability of variouslevels of loss (e.g., 10–30% of replacement value) for an exampletwo-story timber building exposed to hurricane wind, earthquake,snow, and flood hazards at four representative locations in theUnited States. Duthinh and Simiu (2014) discussed issues in codi-fication of load combination criteria for regions subjected to bothearthquakes and hurricanes. Kameshwar and Padgett (2014) evalu-ated the risk profile to bridges exposed to earthquakes and hurricaneinduced storm surge and wave loading, highlighting the influenceof parameter variation on the relative risk profile for multiplehazards.

In spite of all the above recent developments, model codes fun-damentally continue to treat each hazard individually, and with dif-ferent approaches with respect to return period and safety indexes.However, although nothing has been formalized at the time of thiswriting (to the best of the authors’ knowledge), some model codecommittees have undertaken efforts toward addressing multihazardissues.

Hazard Interaction and Cascading Effects

One of the complexities associated with a multihazard approach instructural engineering is the understanding and modeling of hazardinteractions and cascading effects. Gill and Malamud (2014) pre-sented a detailed literature review and classification of natural haz-ard interactions. They investigated the spatial and temporal scalesfor 21 natural hazards divided into five hazard groups (i.e., geo-physical, hydrological, shallow earth processes, atmospheric, andbiophysical hazards). Based on a literature review and on the analy-sis of relevant case studies, they classified four categories of hazardinteractions: (1) interactions which trigger a hazard, (2) interactionswhich increase the probability of a hazard, (3) interactions whichdecrease the probability of a hazard, and (4) events involving thespatial and temporal coincidence of natural hazards. They alsoevaluated the extent to which secondary hazards (i.e., triggered ef-fects) can be forecasted given that the primary hazard event hasoccurred (triggering effect) based on the concepts of spatial overlapand temporal likelihood. Finally, they identified the explicit analy-sis of hazard interactions as the main feature of a proper holisticmultihazard approach to assessing hazard potential. To better high-light this feature, they introduced the term multilayer single hazardapproaches for methodologies that are based on the independentanalysis of multiple different hazards. Zaghi et al. (2016) suggesteda similar differentiation between multihazard and multiple hazarddesign approaches, and noted that “modern design codes accountfor concurrence and combinations of multiple hazards by sug-gesting load combinations and load factors intended to include

Table 3. Anticipated Reliability for Earthquake (Adapted from ASCE 2010, Table C.1.3.1b, © ASCE)

Risk category Description

Risk categories I and IITotal or partial structural collapse 10% conditioned on the occurrence of maximum considered earthquake shakingFailure that could result in endangerment of individual lives 25% conditioned on the occurrence of maximum considered effects

Risk category IIITotal or partial structural collapse 6% conditioned on the occurrence of maximum considered earthquake shakingFailure that could result in endangerment of individual lives 15% conditioned on the occurrence of maximum considered earthquake shaking

Risk category IVTotal or partial structural collapse 3% conditioned on the occurrence of maximum considered earthquake shakingFailure that could result in endangerment of individual lives 10% conditioned on the occurrence of maximum considered earthquake shaking

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Pro

babi

lity

of d

amag

e

Sa [g]

Minor (no anchors)

Moderate (no anchors)

Severe (no anchors)

Minor (anchors)

moderate (anchors)

Severe (anchors)

Fig. 3. Probability of hurricane and earthquake damage (Charleston)(reprinted from Li and Ellingwood 2009, © ASCE)

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uncertainties and significance of different hazards,” whereas“multihazard design requires an in-depth understanding of thenature of various hazards and their interactions.” Garcia-Aristizabaland Marzocchi (2013) categorized multihazard assessment intotwo possible processes: (1) “assessing different (independent)hazards threatening a given (common) area,” and (2) “assessingpossible interactions and/or cascade effects among the differenttypes of hazardous events.” They concluded that a holistic multi-hazard approach should include both processes. Zaghi et al. (2016)also identified two levels of hazard interactions: (1) interactionsthrough the nature of hazards (Level I interactions), which encom-pass the interactions that are independent of the presence of struc-tural or infrastructure components; and (2) interactions through theeffects of hazards (Level II interactions), which comprise the inter-actions through “site effects, impacts on physical components,network and system disruptions, and social and economic consequen-ces.” The classification of hazard interactions proposed by Gill andMalamud (2014) focuses on the hazards considered independently

from their effects on structures and infrastructures, and thus appliesonly to the Level I interactions as defined in Zaghi et al. (2016).

This paper reviews current research on hazard interactions andcascading effects with respect to structural applications in terms ofa combination of classifications from Gill and Malamud (2014) andZaghi et al. (2016). Note that some interactions are combinationsof different effects (e.g., triggering effects also can modify hazardprobabilities and/or modify the impacts of the different hazards onphysical components) and the classifications used in this paperhave some components of subjectivity in the identification of thepredominant feature of the interactions considered.

Hazard Interactions Which Trigger a HazardSignificant research efforts have been devoted to investigating theinteraction between primary hazards (triggering effects) and secon-dary hazards (triggered effects). Within a multihazard approachas defined by Zaghi et al. (2016), the investigation of primary/secondary hazard interactions should involve (1) the probabilistic

Table 4. Annual Probability of Loss at Representative Sites Subjected to Multiple Hazards (Data from Li and van de Lindt 2012)

Site Hazard Loss (%)

Lower standard—R1 Higher standard—R2

Fragilityparameters

Annualprobabiliyof loss

Fragilityparameters

Annualprobabilityof lossλR ζR λR ζR

Biloxi, Mississippi Hurricane 5–10 4.250 0.163 0.264 4.648 0.162 0.080Weibull 10–30 4.340 0.164 0.214 4.743 0.173 0.055μ ¼ 58.96 30–50 4.556 0.197 0.118 4.907 0.098 0.018α ¼ 1.725 50–100 4.641 0.161 0.082 5.016 0.153 0.011Flood 5–10 ABV to

determine annualloss

0.00376 ABV todetermine annual

loss

1.58 × 10−6Gumbel 10–30 0.00011 8.55 × 10−8

μ ¼ −30.46 30–50 9.50 × 10−11 3.99 × 10−14α ¼ −0.162 50–100 7.90 × 10−15 0

Yakima, Washington Seismic 1–5 0.348 0.480 5.30 × 10−5 0.723 0.493 2.30 × 10−5Power law 5–10 0.553 0.543 3.90 × 10−5 0.944 0.533 1.55 × 10−5

ko ¼ 6.37 × 10−5 10–30 0.607 0.548 3.50E-05 0.998 0.534 1.37 × 10−5K ¼ 2.288 30–50 0.709 0.536 2.70 × 10−5 1.058 0.524 1.16 × 10−5

50–100 0.775 0.542 2.30 × 10−5 1.097 0.503 1.00 × 10−5Snow 5–10 4.144 0.290 0.00197 4.225 0.287 0.00145

Lognormal 10–30 4.376 0.299 0.00086 4.554 0.302 0.00043λ ¼ 1.61 30–50 4.662 0.301 0.00027 4.846 0.297 0.00012ζ ¼ 0.83 50–100 5.070 0.302 0.00004 5.252 0.303 0.00002

Fargo, North Dakota Flood 5–10 ABV todetermine annual

loss

0.02348 ABV todetermine annual

loss

0.001786Gumbel 10–30 0.00723 0.000677

μ ¼ −65.385 30–50 7.00 × 10−5 5.30 × 10−6α ¼ −0.0539 50–100 3.10 × 10−6 6.13 × 10−7

Snow 5–10 4.144 0.290 0.014 4.225 0.287 0.011Lognormal 10–30 4.376 0.299 0.0074 4.554 0.302 0.0044λ ¼ 2 30–50 4.662 0.301 0.0032 4.846 0.297 0.0017ζ ¼ 0.93 50–100 5.070 0.302 0.0008 5.252 0.303 0.0004

Charleston, South Carolina Hurricane 5–10 4.250 0.163 0.148 4.648 0.162 0.040Weibull 10–30 4.340 0.164 0.116 4.743 0.173 0.027μ ¼ 43.47 30–50 4.556 0.197 0.061 4.695 0.097 0.028α ¼ 1.402 50–100 4.641 0.161 0.041 5.016 0.153 0.005Seismic 1–5 0.348 0.480 0.001 0.723 0.493 0.000

Power law 5–10 0.553 0.543 0.00042 0.944 0.533 0.00027ko ¼ 0.000647 10–30 0.607 0.548 0.00040 0.998 0.534 0.00026K ¼ 1.091 30–50 0.709 0.536 0.00035 1.058 0.524 0.00024

50–100 0.775 0.542 0.00033 1.097 0.503 0.00023Flood 5–10 ABV to

determine annualloss

0.00644 ABV todetermine annual

loss

3.62 × 10−5Gumbel 10–30 0.0006 5.18 × 10−6

μ ¼ −42.692 30–50 5.60 × 10−8 3.11 × 10−10α ¼ −0.108 50–100 1.10 × 10−10 4.14 × 10−12

Note: Units for fragility parameters λR: Hurricane (mph); Snow (psf); Flood (ft).

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characterization of the secondary hazards given the primary hazardevent (e.g., triggering probability and intensity distribution); and(2) the evaluation of the joint effects on structural response, dam-age, and losses produced by the combined actions from primaryand secondary hazards (e.g., structural behavior under secondaryhazards of the structure as damaged by the primary hazard).

In the field of earthquake engineering, particular attention hasbeen given to mainshock–aftershock sequences. Older studies fo-cused on forecasting the properties of the aftershocks given themainshock (Omori 1894; Utsu 1961; Båth 1965). The followingparagraph briefly describes more recent studies which focused onthe effects of mainshock–aftershock sequences on structural re-sponse and performance through the use of nonlinear dynamicfinite-element analysis.

Yin and Li (2011a) developed an object-oriented frameworkto estimate seismic losses of light-frame wood buildings subject tomainshock–aftershock sequences. They used hom*ogeneous andnonhom*ogeneous Poisson processes to simulate series of mainshock–aftershock sequences and adopted back-to-back mainshock–aftershock nonlinear dynamic analysis to determine the maximuminterstory drift attributable to each earthquake occurrence. Theyconcluded that aftershocks and downtime cost are importantcontributors to total seismic losses. Ruiz-García and Negrete-Manriquez (2011) investigated the peak and residual drift demandsof steel framed buildings under as-recorded mainshock–aftershockseismic sequences. They found that the frequency contents ofmainshock and main aftershock are only weakly correlated foras-recorded seismic sequences. They concluded that as-recordedaftershocks do not significantly increase peak and residual driftdemands, and artificial seismic sequences could significantly over-estimate these demands. Nazari et al. (2015) integrated aftershockhazard into performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) forwood-frame buildings. They used incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) based on a sequence of mainshock–aftershock ground mo-tions to develop aftershock fragilities. They found that aftershockshave a small effect on collapse probability for buildings that survivethe mainshock and that the effect of aftershocks is relatively moresignificant on damage states other than collapse for low-rise wood-frame buildings. They concluded that the inclusion of aftershockhazard can significantly affect performance-based seismic designof low-rise wood-frame buildings. Zhang et al. (2013) investigatedaftershock effects on the accumulated damage of concrete gravitydams. They used nonlinear dynamic finite-element analysis in con-junction with 30 as-recorded mainshock–aftershock seismic sequen-ces to estimate the seismic damage process of a concrete gravitydam, and found that the as-recorded sequences of ground motionshave a significant effect on the accumulated damage and on thedesign of concrete gravity dams. Li et al. (2014) investigated thecollapse probability of mainshock-damaged steel buildings in after-shocks as an essential part of developing a framework to integrateaftershock seismic hazard into PBEE. Ribeiro et al. (2014) proposeda reliability-based framework for quantifying the structural robust-ness of steel buildings subject to mainshock–aftershocks sequences.They subjected two-dimensional nonlinear finite-element modelsof buildings designed using pre-Northridge codes to multiplemainshock–aftershock seismic sequences to estimate a reliability-based robustness indicator. They observed that aftershocks havea significant effect on the robustness indicator and that the structuralrobustness is influenced by the structure’s capability to redistributedamage. Ghosh et al. (2015) presented a framework for modelingseismic damage accumulation in bridges. They explored the evolu-tion of damage potential using predictive models of bridge behaviorunder repeated earthquake events along with a time-dependent after-shock hazard occurrence rate and nonhom*ogeneous Poisson process

assumption. Dong and Frangopol (2015) extended this frame-work for probabilistic seismic performance assessment of highwaybridges subjected to mainshock–aftershocks sequences to investi-gate probabilistic direct loss, indirect loss, and resilience metricsof bridges. Song et al. (2016) proposed a framework for probabi-listic loss estimation of steel structures subjected to mainshock–aftershock sequences, and found that even if the aftershock effectson structural response are small, they still may have a significantimpact on seismic loss.

Other aspects that have received significant attention fromresearchers are the investigation of the relation between volcaniceruptions and triggered earthquakes (e.g., Walter and Amelung2006; Feuillet et al. 2006; Neri et al. 2008, 2013; Jiménez et al.2009) and between early seismic activity and subsequent eruptions(e.g., Harrington and Brodsky 2007; Gabrieli et al. 2015; White andMcCausland 2016; Bonini et al. 2016). However, the literature onmultihazard effects of volcanic eruptions and corresponding trig-gered effects on structural systems is very limited. Zuccaro et al.(2008) proposed a model to assess the impact of different volcanichazards (including earthquakes, pyroclastic flows, and ash falls)on masonry and reinforced concrete (RC) building structures.Baxter et al. (2008) developed an evidence-based approach usingevent tree scenarios to quantify the consequences of an eruption atVesuvius. They investigated the risk assessment for disaster plan-ning and the potential risk–benefit of different mitigation measures,including timely evacuation, building protection, and hardening ofinfrastructure systems and lifelines.

Other earthquake-triggered hazards have been extensivelyinvestigated, such as earthquake and soil liquefaction (Bowers2007; Kramer et al. 2008; Elgamal et al. 2008; Zhang et al. 2008;Brandenberg et al. 2011), earthquake and tsunami (Akiyama andFrangopol 2014a; Burns 2015), earthquake and landslides (Kojimaet al. 2014; Zhang et al. 2014), earthquake and fire (Sekizawa et al.2003; Chen et al. 2004; Kim 2014; Imani et al. 2015a, b; Meacham2016), and earthquake and blast (Fujikura and Bruneau 2008, 2012;Jalayer et al. 2011). In particular, Jalayer et al. (2011) proposed amethodology to evaluate the expected lifecycle cost of a criticalinfrastructure subject to multiple hazards and applied the proposedmethodology to the case of earthquake and blast. This methodologyaccounts for both the uncertainty in the occurrence of different ex-treme hazardous events and the deterioration of the structure dueto different subsequent extreme events. The literature regardingthe interaction between other primary hazards and their triggeredeffects is comparatively scarcer, e.g., see Wu and Hao (2005) andHaciefendioğlu et al. (2015) for blast-induced ground motion andButler et al. (1991) for landslide-induced floods.

Hazard Interactions Which Increase or Decrease Probabilityof a HazardKappes et al. (2010, 2012a) described the effects of one hazard thatcan change environmental conditions and thus affect the frequencyand/or the magnitude of other hazards. Under these conditions, onehazard does not directly trigger another hazard, but it can modify(positively or negatively) the probability of occurrence and theintensity of hazardous events. It is noteworthy that most of theexisting research tends to focus on hazard interactions that increaseundesirable hazard effects (Gill and Malamud 2014).

Hazard interactions which increase or decrease the probabilityof a hazard have been extensively investigated. In hurricane engi-neering, several studies have clearly highlighted the importance ofthe interaction among hazards. Vickery et al. (2006a, b) proposedappropriate wind–windborne debris damage states for residentialbuildings, which were integrated within the HAZUS-MH hurri-cane model methodology (FEMA 2012). Womble et al. (2006)

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developed a joint hurricane wind–surge damage scale based on aloss-consistent approach. Phan et al. (2007) proposed a methodol-ogy for creating site-specific joint distributions of combined hur-ricane wind and surge. They combined the use of full hurricanetracks to estimate the wind speed, and the Sea, Lake, and OverlandSurge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model (Jelesnianski et al. 1992)to evaluate the corresponding surge heights. Lin and Vanmarcke(2010a, b) proposed a vulnerability model that explicitly includedthe effects of correlation between wind-borne debris and wind pres-sure damage. Li et al. (2012) estimated the combined losses causedby hurricane wind, storm surge, and rainwater intrusion for residen-tial buildings. Pita et al. (2012) proposed a methodology for assess-ment of hurricane-induced interior building damage by consideringthe co-occurrence of wind and rain. Li and van de Lindt (2012)considered the use of joint statistical distributions to characterizethe combined effects of wind, wave height, and current velocityin the ocean. Li et al. (2012) and Park et al. (2014) used anassembly-based vulnerability procedure combined with mechanis-tic response modeling for hurricane wind-surge loss estimation, inwhich the hurricane-induced surge heights were based on thethree hurricane parameters (i.e., radius to maximum wind speed,maximum wind speed, and central pressure deficit) obtained fromhistorical hurricanes. Bjarnadottir et al. (2013) expanded thisprocedure to investigate regional loss estimation due to hurricanewind and hurricane-induced surge considering climate variability,with three case study locations (Miami-Dade County, Florida;New Hanover County, North Carolina; and Galveston County,Texas). Pei et al. (2014) developed joint hazard maps of combinedhurricane wind and surge for Charleston, South Carolina, and Panget al. (2014) performed a loss analysis for the same locationconsidering these joint hazard maps. Rosowsky et al. (2016) inves-tigated the impact of climate change on the joint wind–rain hurri-cane hazard for the northeastern U.S. coastline. Mudd et al. (2017)developed a joint probabilistic hurricane wind–rainfall model fornumerical simulation of tropical cyclones. Based on simulation re-sults including climate change effects, they concluded that hurri-canes are projected to intensify and reduce in size.

More recent research efforts have been dedicated to the ex-tension of the performance-based engineering philosophy to hurri-cane engineering. Based on the total probability theorem, Barbatoet al. (2013) developed a performance-based hurricane engineer-ing (PBHE) framework for risk assessment and loss analysis ofstructural and infrastructure systems subject to hurricane hazard.The proposed PBHE framework considered the multihazard natureof hurricane events, the interaction of different hazard sources(i.e., wind, wind-borne debris, storm surge, and rain), and the po-tential cascading effects of these distinct hazards. Unnikrishnan andBarbato (2017) used the PBHE framework to investigate the effectsof interaction among wind, wind-borne debris, storm surge, and rainhazards on the loss analysis for wood-frame houses in hurricane-prone regions. They examined the use of different hazard-modelingtechniques and vulnerability analysis approaches and proposed anew consistent terminology to classify different hazard-modelingtechniques. They concluded that the use of different hazard modelsand vulnerability approaches can significantly affect the loss analy-sis results for low-rise wood-frame houses subject to hurricanehazard.

Interaction effects between flood and sea-level rise also havereceived significant attention from several researchers. Nichollset al. (1999) investigated the potential impact of sea-level rise andcoastal subsidence on coastal flooding and coastal wetland losses atboth global and regional levels. When accounting for the expectedincrease in coastal population, they predicted that by the 2080s(1) the number of people yearly affected by storm surge flood

will be more than five times higher compared with a scenariowith constant sea level, and (2) up to 22% of the world’s coastalwetlands will be lost due to sea-level rise. Purvis et al. (2008) pre-sented a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastalflooding when accounting for sea-level rise uncertainty. Hinkelet al. (2014) assessed coastal flood damage and adaptation costsunder 21st century sea-level rise on a global scale. They took intoaccount uncertainties in continental topography data, populationdata, protection strategies, socioeconomic development, and sea-level rise. They concluded that expected flood damages by theend of the 21st century are more sensitive to the adopted protectionstrategy than to climate and socioeconomic changes.

A few studies considered other hazard interactions in whichthe probability of occurrence of a hazard is modified. Bunyaet al. (2010) and Dietrich et al. (2010) developed a coupled riverineflow, tide, wind, wind wave, and storm surge model for southernLouisiana and Mississippi and applied it to model the effects ofHurricanes Katrina and Rita. Several studies focused on modelingand prediction of rainfall-induced slope failures (e.g., Crosta andFrattini 2003; Arnone et al. 2011; Chen et al. 2016). Cannon et al.(2008, 2010) investigated the increased probability of debris flowsin areas affected by wildfires.

Hazard Interactions due to Spatial and/or TemporalCoincidence of Natural HazardsHazard interactions due to spatial and/or temporal coincidence ofnatural hazards traditionally have been considered using factoredload coefficients, as done, for example, in ASCE 7-10 (ASCE2010). However, this approach neglects potential compounding ef-fects among concurring hazards (Tarvainen et al. 2006; Gill andMalamoud 2014) and conditions in which different uncorrelatedhazards may act at the same time with intensities that are smallerthan their design intensities.

Research focusing on this particular hazard-interaction type isrelatively scarce. Several researchers (Chester 1993; Umbal andRodolfo 1996; Self 2006) investigated the eruption of MountPinatubo in 1991, which coincided with Typhoon Yunya. The com-bination of heavy rainfall from the typhoon and thick ash depositsfrom the eruption triggered lahars and structural failures due to thesignificant additional gravity loads associated with the presence ofwet ash (Chester 1993). Wahl et al. (2015) investigated the increas-ing risk of flooding due to compounding effects of storm surge andheavy rainfall in the U.S. Yin and Li (2011b) proposed a probabi-listic loss assessment methodology of light-frame wood construc-tion subjected to combined effects of seismic and snow loads.This approach explicitly accounted for snow accumulation.

Hazard Interactions through Impacts on PhysicalComponentsHazard interactions through impacts on physical components arethose interactions in which the effects of a hazard on structural per-formance are magnified by the changes produced on the consideredstructure by another hazard (e.g., modification of the dynamicproperties and strength reduction due to existing damage). Thissection focuses on studies that have explicitly investigated thesespecific cascading effects.

Interactions between scour and seismic action on the structuralresponse and performance of bridges (which, arguably, could alsobe considered spatially and temporally coinciding events) havebeen widely examined. Alipour and Shafei (2012) developed seis-mic fragility curves for RC bridges under different scour scenarios.They used nonlinear finite-element time history analysis to evaluatethe seismic response of bridge structures affected by scour. Theyconsidered the uncertainties associated with scour depth and mod-eled the scour effect on bridges by increasing the length of the piers

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by an amount equal to the scour depth. From the fragility curvesdeveloped using the joint probabilities of scouring and seismicloading, they concluded that the lateral load bearing capacity ofa bridge decreases with the increase of the scour depth. Alipouret al. (2013) used the same finite-element modeling approach to(1) evaluate the failure probability for bridges subject to a combi-nation of scour and seismic loads, and (2) determine scour–loadmodification factors to satisfy code-specified design requirements.Wang et al. (2012) presented a methodology to derive earthquake–scour fragility surfaces for bridges. Based on preliminary resultsobtained from two benchmark bridges, they highlighted the effectsof foundation overstrength on bridge fragility, with failure modesthat can move from the piers to the foundation piles for increasingscour depth. Prasad and Banerje (2013) also investigated the effectsof flood-induced scour on bridge seismic fragility curves and con-cluded that the fragility increases nonlinearly with the increase ofscour depth. Liang and Lee (2013a, b) presented a probability-based methodology to estimate the combined hazard effects onbridge reliability due to truck loads, earthquake actions, and scoureffects. Wang et al. (2014a, b) investigated the influence of scour onthe response of RC bridges and presented the calibration of partialload factors for design of RC bridges under the combined hazardeffects of earthquake and scour.

Another structural engineering subfield that has attracted ex-tensive research interest is the analysis of aging effects on the per-formance of structures subjected to different hazards. Numerousstudies investigated the time-variant response, fragility, reliability,lifecycle cost, and sustainability of RC elements and structures sub-ject to corrosion and seismic hazards (e.g., Choe et al. 2008; Kumaret al. 2009; Li et al. 2009; Simon et al. 2010; Ghosh and Padgett2010, 2011, 2012; Akiyama et al. 2011; Alipour et al. 2011;Rokneddin et al. 2013; Akiyama and Frangopol 2014b; Thanapolet al. 2016). A few researchers have considered the combined ef-fects of aging and hazards other than seismic loading; Padgett et al.(2010) investigated the aging effects on the dynamic response ofRC bridges subjected to seismic and coupled surge/wave loadinginduced by hurricanes, and Guo et al. (2011) performed a probabi-listic assessment of the performance of aging prestressed concretebridges under increased vehicle loads.

The interactions of other hazards through their effects on struc-tural systems also have received some attention. Kudzys (2006)investigated the time-dependent reliability of power transmissionstructures under combined extreme windstorm, ice deposit, andbroken conductor events. Unobe and Sorensen (2015) consideredthe detrimental effects of wind fatigue on a wind turbine foundationand studied the corresponding increase in failure probability underseismic loading. Unnikrishnan and Barbato (2016) used the PBHEframework to compare different storm mitigation techniques forlow-rise residential building subject to combined wind and wind-borne debris hazards. The analysis included the cascading effectsrelated to changes in the interior pressure coefficients due tobreaching of the building envelope by wind-borne debris. They ob-served that, for the specific application example considered in theirpaper, explicitly including the interaction between wind and wind-borne debris produced expected annual loss estimates approxi-mately 15% higher than the sum of the expected annual losses dueto each individual hazard. They concluded that a significant level ofinteraction existed among the different hazards for the case studyconsidered.

Approaches for Distributed Infrastructure

Multihazard design and risk assessment can be extended be-yond emphasis on individual structures to address the multihazard

performance of infrastructure, including regional portfolios ofstructures and infrastructure systems comprised of multiple net-worked components. This section reviews the current state andunique considerations when extending the multihazard assessmentand design concepts previously presented for individual structuresto evaluate the performance of spatially distributed infrastructure.Portfolios of structures are considered as regional inventories ofstructures, such as portfolios of school buildings, residential hous-ing, or bridges. Infrastructure systems are interconnected compo-nents that collectively provide services necessary to support socialand economic activity. Although critical infrastructure systems alsohave been defined in the literature to include organizational sys-tems, financial systems, and human capital and services (Moteffand Parfomak 2004), this section focuses on extending multihazardconcepts specifically for distributed physical infrastructure systems(e.g., transportation, power, water supply, and telecommunicationssystems).

A number of frameworks have been proposed in the literatureor incorporated into regional risk assessment and loss estimationpackages to evaluate the performance of distributed infrastructurein the face of multiple hazards (Ayyub et al. 2007; Kappes et al.2012b; van Westen et al. 2014; FEMA 2015; Hackl et al. 2015;Clarke and Obrien 2016). These works vary in their address ofmultihazard effects, such as the simultaneous occurrence of twoor more hazards or the influence of triggered or cascading hazardson network performance. More commonly, relative risks from dif-ferent hazards are assessed individually and compared (Grünthalet al. 2006; Schmidt et al. 2011). Such an assessment for networkedinfrastructure requires (1) definition of a mathematical model forthe network, (2) identification of criteria for the analysis (i.e., sys-tem performance indicators such as resistance, connectivity, flow,serviceability, or associated costs), and (3) analysis of the physi-cally varying network model when subjected to individual or multi-ple hazards using either a deterministic or a probabilistic method todetermine the performance. The approach to infrastructure systemabstraction (e.g., through planar graphs, shortest paths, or series–parallel systems) often is implicitly related to the adopted networkanalysis method for system performance assessment. Beyond as-sessment, design of networks often requires not only a forwardanalysis of system performance but also inverse problem solvingto derive component performance targets or optimal interventions.Fewer works exist that explicitly address the multihazard design ofinfrastructure systems. As with the design of individual structures,infrastructure systems often are designed by evaluating perfor-mance under various hazards individually. For some systems, dis-cussions of community-driven network-level performance targetsare emerging (SPUR 2009), thus guiding the design targets de-rived for individual constituents. However, for many systems, suchas the highway system, the design practice for constituents suchas bridges does not necessarily reflect network-level objectives,although recent research has begun to suggest methods to achievethis vision (Wang 2014a). Efficient methods and practical designguidelines that achieve network-level risk targets, given multiha-zard exposure, remain areas ripe for continued contribution.

The variety of structural characteristics exhibited within struc-tural portfolios and infrastructure systems poses distinct challengeswhen conducting multihazard risk analyses for the purposes of de-sign or risk management activities. Because structural portfoliosand infrastructure systems comprise multiple constituents that mayvary in age, geometry, and design detail, among other features, vul-nerability models often are required for many distinct structuresacross a region that may be exposed to multiple hazards. To addressthis challenge, researchers have either adopted very simple models(e.g., single-degree-of-freedom representation of buildings) that are

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practical for portfolio application (e.g., Mitrani-Reiser et al. 2009;Marano et al. 2011), fragility models representative of overallclasses or subclasses of structures (e.g., FEMA 2012), or (morerecently) parameterized fragility models that incorporate variousstructural predictors in addition to intensity measures for multiplehazards (e.g., Kameshwar and Padgett 2014). At the network level,parameterized fragility models also have been proposed recentlyto depict system performance as a function of multiple hazard in-tensity measures, such as the empirically derived electrical power–network fragilities developed by Reed et al. (2016) conditionedon rainfall, surge inundation, and wind speed. As indicated byKappes et al. (2012a), few integrated approaches exist to developvulnerability functions in a multihazard context, and often alack of consistency exists in the level of fidelity for assessingthe fragility of infrastructure portfolios even across multiple indi-vidual hazards.

The distributed nature of infrastructure also leads to unique chal-lenges when designing or assessing multihazard risk. First, prob-abilistic hazard models are required along with efficient strategiesfor simulating the spatial variation in intensity of multiple single,concurrent, and/or cascading hazard events. Unfortunately, readilyavailable probabilistic hazard models are lacking for many multi-hazard cases or their development is still in early stages, for exam-ple, for joint wind–surge–wave events (Phan et al. 2007; Taflanidiset al. 2013), coupled rainfall runoff and coastal surge (Torres et al.2015; Sebastian et al. 2017), or tsunami following earthquake(De Risi and Goda 2016; Burns et al. 2017; Park et al. 2017).Furthermore, several studies that focus on risk assessment of infra-structures under natural hazards have incorporated and tested theimportance of correlated failures arising from the correlation in haz-ard intensity—either interevent or intraevent correlations (Crowleyand Bommer 2006)—or sources of correlation in component vul-nerability. For example, correlations in seismic intensities havebeen considered for damage and loss estimation for portfolios ofbuildings (Goda and Hong 2008; Sokolov and Wenzel 2011), serv-iceability assessment of water distribution systems (Adachi andEllingwood 2009), and reliability assessment of other lifeline sys-tems, such as the gas distribution network (Song and Ok 2010).This concept has yet to be fully extended to distributed infrastruc-ture under multihazard loading. Select studies are emerging, how-ever, that have introduced the consideration of hazard-inducedcorrelations when assessing risk under multiple individual hazards,such as the work by Corotis and Bonstrom (2015) that consideredlosses to building portfolios exposed to hurricane winds and earth-quakes. Correlations in component failures under natural hazardsalso may stem from similarities in design and construction details,age, and level of degradation, among many other factors. Althoughthe quantification of these correlations in component vulnerabilitymay be challenging to assess, their importance has been under-scored for hazard risk assessment of structural portfolios and infra-structure systems (Lee and Kiremidjian 2007).

An additional challenge introduced when assessing multihazardperformance of distributed infrastructure is the resulting variationin exposure of infrastructure components to degrading environmen-tal elements. For example, coastal structures may be sited in marinezones subjected to sea spray, whereas inland structures are limitedto atmospheric exposure. Although few studies integrate continualenvironmental deterioration into hazard risk analyses for structuralportfolios or infrastructure systems, select examples exist, althoughthey typically emphasize single-hazard exposure, such as for bridgeand transportation networks under seismic loads (Lee et al. 2011;Rokneddin et al. 2014; Ghosh et al. 2014) or for wood poles inpower-distribution networks under wind loads (Shafieezadeh et al.2014). Such studies introduce the concept of lifecycle degradation

in infrastructure performance under natural hazards to reflect thereduced capacity of infrastructure components to sustain hazardloading throughout their lifetimes. Select studies extend this con-sideration of time-dependent component reliability when assessingmultihazard performance of infrastructure (Decò and Frangopol2011). Further work is required to fully explore lifecycle multiha-zard performance for a range of structural portfolios, infrastructurenetworks, and hazards.

Considerations for Interdependent Systems

Distributed structural portfolios and infrastructure systems collec-tively provide services to communities that are necessary for daily(and postdisaster) functioning. Many of these distributed networkshave interdependencies on other systems, which are needed tofunction properly and must be considered carefully in multihazardrisk assessment. Several types of interdependencies can be foundin critical infrastructure systems. Physical interdependencies arisefrom physical links between the inputs and outputs of two distrib-uted systems (Rinaldi et al. 2001; Dudenhoeffer et al. 2006; Zhangand Peeta 2011). An energy network, whose power plants requirethe water system for cooling, is an example of a physical depend-ency. Geospatial interdependencies arise when the components ofone system geographically coincide with another system (Rinaldiet al. 2001; Zimmerman 2010; Wallace et al. 2003; Lee et al. 2007).An example of geospatial dependency is the installation of utilityfacilities on highway structures, typically located above the under-side of the superstructure and inside the fascia elements. As cyberand information technology continues to mature, regional portfo-lios of structures and infrastructure systems continue to growcyber interdependent on information transmitted through the infor-mation network (Rinaldi et al. 2001). For example, the healthcarenetwork is extremely dependent on electronic medical records andinformation networks for administering pharmaceuticals. Othernonphysical interdependencies can exist as well, such as logical(Rinaldi et al. 2001) and economic (Zhang and Peeta 2011). A geo-graphically distributed portfolio of structures and infrastructuresystems is an example of a complex system with all of the abovetypes of interdependencies. Mieler and Mitrani-Reiser defineportfolios of structures and infrastructure systems as a criticalinfrastructure-based societal system (CIbSS) (Mieler and Mitrani-Reiser 2016)

A CIbSS, shown graphically in Fig. 4, is an interdependentinfrastructure system that provides key community functions andis linked by occupancy type, people, policies, information, geo-graphic location, and/or building services. The top layer of theCIbSS in Fig. 4 shows a portfolio of structures that together servea community function and that are dependent on underlying net-works of critical lifelines (i.e., water, wastewater, power, naturalgas, communications and cyber, and transportation). The arrowsin the diagram denote the directionality of dependencies (singlearrowheads) and interdependencies (double arrowheads). An ex-ample of a CIbSS is a school district, in which all district schoolsmake up the portfolio, because they all have the same occupancytype (i.e., education facility) and are managed by a single stake-holder (i.e., the school district). Like school districts, many typesof CIbSS are common to most communities (e.g., government,education, emergency services, healthcare, banking/finance, busi-ness). However, other building portfolios specific to a location maybe critical to that specific location’s economic well-being (e.g., hos-pitality infrastructure is necessary for the tourism economy inFlorida). Assessing the performance of distributed complex infra-structure systems and understanding the complex nature of their

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interdependencies will result in a deeper understanding of individ-ual communities’ vulnerabilities to future hazards.

The literature describing system-level risk-assessment methodsfor interdependent infrastructure systems is rich, including empiri-cal approaches (e.g., McDaniels et al. 2007), systems dynamicsmethods (e.g., Brailsford 2008), input-output models (e.g., Santosand Haimes 2004), network-based models (e.g., Holden et al.2013), agent-based models (e.g., Barton and Stamber 2000), andadvanced hybrid models (e.g., Satumtira and Duenas-Osorio 2010).Ouyang (2014) presented a comprehensive overview of the re-quired risk-assessment methods.

Although some challenges exist in the multihazard designof individual distributed infrastructure systems, the interdependen-cies present in complex networks composed of several types ofdistributed systems increase the potential for cascading failures(Penderson et al. 2006) and highlight that a failure of just a smallnumber of nodes in one network may lead to catastrophic fragmen-tation of a system of several interdependent networks (Buldyrevet al. 2009), such as power blackouts. In order to address hiddenvulnerabilities that may exist in interconnected networks, it is im-portant to mathematically characterize the connectivity within andbetween networks (i.e., Leicht and D’Souza 2009), use reliabilitymethods that account for redistribution of flow in the network(Duenas-Osorio and Vemuru 2009), and apply global assessmentmetrics to account for the potential of cascading effects. For exam-ple, Ouyang and Duenas-Osorio (2011) offered a global assessmentstrategy, including their global annual cascading failure effectmetric, for the design of coupled infrastructure systems because anoptimum design under one hazard type may not be effective underother types of hazards.

Structural Systems and Elements Optimal forMultihazard Resistance

An important innovative activity in multihazard design is to iden-tify or develop new structural concepts, systems, mitigation strat-egies, and technologies that can provide simultaneous protection

against more than one hazard (without increasing cost over thatfor a single-hazard design). This paper highlighted previously thatsynergies can be found in the strategies to mitigate structural dam-age due to blasts and earthquakes because they both rely on ductileresponse of structures to achieve satisfactory performance, in spiteof major differences in demands. Similar synergies may also existto mitigate nonstructural damage for blasts, hurricanes, and earth-quakes, but the few examples provided hereinafter focus on struc-tural systems. The following subsections present some selectedrecent research highlights on how such possible synergies havebeen addressed. In the long term, it is expected that those technol-ogies that are shown to achieve the broadest possible level of pro-tection at the least possible cost will be more likely to be adopted.

Potra and Simiu (2009) correctly pointed out that the type ofoptimization to which this paper refers is not a rigorous mathemati-cal optimization as commonly performed in the field of structuraloptimization; the term is used here instead to refer to the designer’sbroad search for structural systems that can be “as effective, perfect,or useful as possible” (according to the dictionary definition ofOptimizing), relying on a synthesis of the structural engineer’sexperience, judgment, and insights into structural behavior and de-sign constraints, which may be all that is possible at this point intime when multihazard design is still in its infancy.

Multihazard Resistant Bridge PiersInterestingly, much research on multihazard structural systems hasfocused on bridge piers. This circ*mstance may be a consequenceof the fact that bridges, already exposed to many hazards, becamea concern following the 9-11 events as threats were received target-ing landmark bridges across the nation. The concern naturally thenextended to highway bridges, recognizing that they are more acces-sible and vulnerable than landmark bridges, which are closelymonitored. In many instances, the destruction of a highway bridgecan have profound effects on the economy it serves. This elevatedthe topic of blast-resistant design in the national discussionson bridge infrastructure (FHWA 2003; Williamson and Winget2005; Winget et al. 2005, 2008; Anwarul Islam and Yazdani 2006;

TransportationCommunications/cyber

Natural gasPower

WastewaterWater

Critical infrastructure-based societal system

Fig. 4. Interdependent CIbSS (reproduced from M. W. Mieler and J. Mitrani-Reiser, “Mitigating multi-scale earthquake impacts: A review of thestate-of-the-art in assessing loss of functionality in buildings,” submitted, J. Struct. Eng., ASCE, Reston, Virginia)

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Ray 2006; ASCE 2008; Agrawal et al. 2009; Williamson andWilliams 2009; Davis et al. 2009; Yi 2009; and others summarizedin Fujikura and Bruneau 2008), which naturally also led to theconsideration of multihazard solutions, from the perspective ofdeveloping optimized solutions that can provide protections againstmultiple hazards (e.g., Agrawal et al. 2009) or, in other words,searching for a single design concept able to satisfactorily fulfillthe demands of multiple hazards and their possible interactions.

Toward that goal, various researchers (e.g., Fujikura andBruneau 2008, 2011; Williamson et al. 2011a, b; Burrell et al.2015; Echevarria et al. 2016a) analytically and experimentally in-vestigated the blast and seismic behavior of a series of differentbridge column designs. Columns are, in most bridges, the ductilestructural element relied upon to resist earthquakes; the ability ofthose columns to survive the blast scenario created by the detona-tion of explosives located inside a small vehicle below the bridgedeck at close distance to the column (Fig. 5) became the archetypalconsideration; although most studies increased the intensity of blastforces beyond that scenario for the purpose of investigating theultimate failure modes of the columns.

Bridge Piers with Concrete-Filled Steel TubesIn the aforementioned perspective, Fujikura and Bruneau (2008,2011) proposed and demonstrated analytically and experimentallythat a multicolumn pier-bent system with concrete-filled steel tube(CFST) columns could provide significant ductile behavior underseismic excitations and blast loading (Marson and Bruneau 2004;Fujikura et al. 2007, 2008). Fig. 6 shows ductile column deforma-tions for an extreme case of blast pressures exceeding those relatedto the considered scenario. The columns are effective for blast load-ings because CFST columns prevent breaching and spalling ofconcrete.

Experiments also were performed on conventional seismicallydetailed ductile RC columns and nonductile RC columns retrofittedwith steel jackets to become ductile (Fujikura and Bruneau 2008,2011). Steel jacketing commonly has been used on the West Coastof the United States to ensure ductile flexural behavior and preventshear failure of nonductile columns (Chai et al. 1991). However,although a column retrofitted with a steel jacket visually resemblesa CFST column, it typically is discontinuous at the column top andbase in order to avoid undesirable overload of the adjacent mem-bers (i.e., footing or cap beam) due to composite action that wouldsignificantly increase the flexural strength of the column (Buckleet al. 2006). The RC columns, in spite of being designed and de-tailed in compliance with the latest seismic requirements to achieveductile response, were not found to exhibit a ductile behavior underblast loading, and failed in direct shear at their bases rather than byflexural yielding (Fig. 7). Identical failure occurred for the jacketedcolumns. The CFST columns of identical flexural strength sub-jected to similar and even greater blast forces failed in a ductilemanner.

Building on those results, Fouché and Bruneau (2014) pro-posed columns consisting of concrete-filled double-skin steel tubes(CFDSTs), which consist of two concentric steel tubes separated by

a concrete core (Fig. 8), to optimize material use, provide redun-dancy, enhance ductility, provide dowel action against direct shearfailure in more extreme events, and provide enhanced fire resis-tance. In a multihazard context, the significant ductility of the sys-tem benefits its robustness by preventing any nonductile mode offailure under extreme events that may push the structure beyond itselastic limits.

In parallel, to retrofit the previously observed direct-shear fail-ure vulnerability of jacketed columns detected at the gaps betweenthe jacket and the surrounding footing and cap beam when exposedto blast, a modified steel-jacketed column (MSJC) concept wasproposed and tested (Fouche and Bruneau 2014; Fouche et al.2016). Structural steel collars were placed around the gaps and tied

35 m 25 m 30 m

6 m

1 m

XpDeckPier

Fig. 5. Schematics of prototype bridge and assumed blast scenario

Fig. 6. CFST bridge column specimen after extreme blast test (imagesby Michel Bruneau): (a) column deformation; (b) foundation

Fig. 7. Direct shear failures from blast test (images by MichelBruneau): (a) seismically detailed reinforced concrete columnspecimen; (b) steel-jacketed concrete columns

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to the adjacent elements with postinstalled anchors (Fig. 9) to helpincrease the shear strength locally.

The CFDSTs and MSJCs were subjected to blast, and in somecases cyclic inelastic tests (Fig. 10), to investigate their applicabilityas candidate multihazard systems for bridge applications. Satisfac-tory behavior was obtained in all cases. Large ductile flexural de-formations were achievable during both seismic and blast tests.

Expanding on the preceding studies and considering an addi-tional hazard, analytical and experimental studies were conductedto examine the behavior of CFDSTs exposed to fire after being sub-jected to simulated seismic loads, and, conversely, seismic loadingafter being exposed to fire (Imani and Bruneau 2014; Imani et al.2015a, b). This investigation was done because the internal tube inCFDSTs can significantly enhance fire resistance compared withCFSTs. Specimens first were subjected to quasi-static cyclic lateralloads, imposing varying degrees of lateral drift, before being ex-posed to fire in accordance with the standard ASTM E119 (ASTM2008) temperature-time curve while sustaining an axial load untilthe column failed due to global buckling (Fig. 11). Overall, theresults provided evidence for the resilient performance of thesecolumns under postearthquake fire scenarios.

Bridge Piers with Concrete-Filled Fiber-Reinforced PolymerTubesAnother alternative system to conventional RC columns isconcrete-filled fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) tubes (CFFTs). Inrecent years, the CFFT system has been widely studied as a durableand cost-effective alternative structural system to its RC counterpart(Echevarria et al. 2016a; AASHTO 2012). The desire to combine

Fig. 8. Concrete-filled double-skin tube (image by Michel Bruneau)

Fig. 9. Deformation of MSJC after blast test: (a) global; (b) local[(a and b) images by Michel Bruneau]

Fig. 10. (a) CFDST specimen; (b) typical hysteretic loop

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the improved strength and ductility shown by the CFST system withthe inherent corrosion resistance of FRP materials led to the develop-ment of the CFFT system by Mirmiran and Shahawy (1995) formarine applications and other highly corrosive environments.

The CFFT system comprises a prefabricated exterior FRP shellwith either a circular or a noncircular shape filled with regular con-crete. The fiber type, angle, and layup can be designed to providedifferent levels of longitudinal and hoop reinforcement. UnlikeFRP jackets that are mostly used in retrofitting of existing deficientcolumns, the FRP tube in the CFFT system serves as both form-work and structural reinforcement for new construction. Static andcyclic tests showed that the structural performance of this columnsystem significantly benefits from the composite action of the FRPtube and the concrete core (Mirmiran and Shahawy 1995, 1996,1997; Mirmiran et al. 1999, 2000; Fam 2000; Fam and Rizkalla2002; Fam et al. 2003, 2007; Ozbakkaloglu and Akin 2012;Mohamed and Masmoudi 2012; Ozbakkaloglu 2013; Qasrawi et al.2016).

However, the absence of metal reinforcement in the traditionalCFFT system reduces ductility, because the yielding of the longi-tudinal bars is a major source of energy dissipation in conventionalcolumns (Priestly et al. 1996). To address this shortcoming, re-searchers have studied an improved CFFT design with longitudinalsteel bars to provide the ductility and energy dissipation required

to resist extreme events such as earthquakes, impacts, and blasts(Ozbakkaloglu and Saatcioglu 2007; Shi et al. 2013; Zaghi et al.2012; Zaghi and Saiidi 2010). A series of shake table tests wereconducted on a two-column bent with one RC and one CFFT col-umn (Zaghi et al. 2012) and on a four-span bridge model incorpo-rating CFFT columns (Kavianipour and Saiidi 2012). Fig. 12 showsthe plastic hinge region at the bases of the columns after being sub-jected to input accelerations equivalent to approximately 2.5 timesthose of the Northridge Earthquake.

The robustness of the CFFT system also has been investigatedunder extreme events other than earthquakes. Echevarria et al.(2016a) compared the residual axial load–carrying capacities ofa series of CFFT columns with those of RC columns following ex-posure to earthquake, blast, and fire effects. Preserving axial capac-ity of damaged columns increases the likelihood of resisting totalcollapse under an extreme event or series of events, which is criticalfor the multihazard robustness of a structure. Echevarria et al.(2016b, 2015) investigated the residual axial capacity of CFFT col-umns after being subjected to blast loads. The system experiencedno significant decrease in axial capacity, whereas the comparableRC columns failed prematurely because of the invisible shear crackat the bottom that was initiated by the blasts (Fig. 13). The blast-damaged CFFT columns failed in the same fashion as the intactcolumns. This demonstrated the CFFT system’s resistance to

Fig. 11. Local and global buckling of specimen columns tested in fire (images by Michel Bruneau)

Fig. 12.Damage state at the bases of the columns in the two-column pier shaking table experiments [(a) reprinted from Esmaili Zaghi 2009; (b) imageby Arash E. Zaghi]

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cumulative damage in a multihazard environment. The fire resis-tance of the CFFT system also was investigated. Because polymersare inherently vulnerable to extreme heat, the CFFT columns had tobe covered with a thin coat of commercial fire-protection product(Bisby et al. 2005; Kodur et al. 2007; Gefu et al. 2008; Fyfe 2013).Following the fire test, the CFFT columns experienced no decreasein axial capacity. The residual axial capacities of columns exposedto seismic loading were determined using analytical models devel-oped in OpenSees (2012). The results showed that axial capacitiesof the CFFT columns were not impacted significantly.

Qasrawi et al. (2015a, b, 2016) studied the robustness of theCFFT system with steel reinforcement under dynamic impact andblast loadings by comparing the performance of CFFT and RCcolumns. They found that an increase in steel reinforcement ratioimproved energy absorption. Under blast loads, residual displace-ments were smaller and localized damage was less severe in theCFFT columns than in their RC counterparts.

Other Multihazard IssuesThe field of multihazard robust design is still emerging and, assuch, guidelines and novel technologies are evolving but still lim-ited. One area that has been identified as a gap in multihazard de-sign is the need for multihazard connection details. Connectiondesign is of particular importance in ABC. The lack of guidelinesfor design of multihazard robust connections has prevented thewidespread use of ABC. A project to develop Best PracticesRegarding Performance of ABC Connections in Bridges Subjectedto Multihazard and Extreme Events (Kapur et al. 2012) summa-rized current ABC connection details, provided suggestions onhow to improve them to achieve satisfactory extreme event perfor-mance, and identified multiple candidate designs for application inmultihazard environments.

In addition to novel structural systems recently developed fornew design, the multihazard robustness of various repair and retro-fit options for columns has been studied by Fakharifar et al. (2015)and Chandrasekaran and Banerjee (2015). Fakharifar et al. (2015)studied the efficiency of FRP, conventional thick steel, and hybridrepair jackets on the aftershock performance of RC bridge columns.Studying the postmainshock behavior of columns shows the re-maining resilience of the system. In addition, these findings can

be expanded to a more widespread multihazard definition ratherthan solely to aftershocks. They found that the fragilities for theunrepaired and repaired bridge showed large deviation under severedamage states. Among the repair techniques, the conventional thicksteel jacket ranked lowest compared with FRP and hybrid jackets.Chandrasekaran and Banerjee (2015) studied the multihazard effectof earthquake and flood-induced scour on bridges retrofitted withsteel, carbon fiber, and glass fiber composites. They found thatjacketing provided enhanced performance for all retrofit materials.Among three jacketing materials, the carbon fiber composite wasfound to be the most effective.

High Performance MaterialsIn recent years, several novel structural materials have been devel-oped and studied that present a significant potential for constructionof multihazard robust structures. These materials include ultrahigh-performance fiber-reinforced concrete (UHPFRC) (Lai et al. 2015;Li et al. 2015; Aoude et al. 2015), high-performance fiber-reinforcedconcrete (HPFRC) (Canbolat 2005; Lequesne et al. 2010; Hung andEl-Tawil 2011), engineered cementitious composites (ECC) (Kesnerand Billington 2005; Zhang et al. 2007; Maalej et al. 2005; Hunget al. 2016), shape memory alloys (SMA) (Song et al. 2006; Youssefet al. 2008; Meo et al. 2013), and hybrid composites (Callens et al.2014; McBride et al. 2017). Integrating innovation at both thematerial and system levels is an effective approach toward improv-ing the robustness of infrastructure. However, more research isneeded to improve the understanding of the performance of struc-tural components and connections made of these materials undermultiple extreme events. From the multihazard perspective, the ro-bustness of structural components also should be evaluated throughexperiments that show how an element damaged by one extremeevent performs when subjected to the same or different types ofhazards.

Alternative ConceptsFinally, earthquakes, vehicle collisions, tsunamis, and blast wereconsidered from the onset in a project intended to develop an alter-native multihazard bridge pier system (Keller and Bruneau 2008;Bruneau et al. 2010). This project incorporated concepts from steelplate shear wall (SPSW) design; these concepts have been imple-mented in buildings, but never incorporated into bridges. Steel plateshear walls are ductile, offer significant redundancy, and can beeasy to repair. The ability to sustain gravity loads and maintainingintegrity after occurrence of any of the other hazards also was criti-cal. Additionally, the project sought a design that had aesthetic ap-peal. Various concepts were explored before eventually convergingon the four-column box pier solution shown in Fig. 14. The projectadopted a continuous three-span steel plate girder prototype super-structure from a seismic design example developed for the FederalHighway Administration (Mast et al. 1996). The pier cap was madeintegral with the superstructure and the SPSW pier system, whichwas found to be advantageous. The pier assembly also was madereasonably narrow in the longitudinal direction to reduce the platesurface area subject to wave loads arising from surging water trans-verse to the bridge. The system was designed for a given seismichazard and then analyzed for the other hazards. This procedurewas possible only because of the multihazard approach taken inconceiving this study at the onset, which consisted of consideringvarious prototype designs and modifying the layout and features ofthe lateral load resisting elements from prototype to prototypebased on engineering experience, judgment, and insights into struc-tural behavior and design constraints until a multihazard solutiondeemed worthy of further investigations (using more complexanalyses) was singled out. Design followed established principlesfor SPSW design (Sabelli and Bruneau 2006; Bruneau et al. 2011),

Fig. 13. Failure of the RC column under axial loading due to a shearcrack initiated under blast loading (image by Arash E. Zaghi)

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and nonlinear pushover analysis verified the structural performanceusing ABAQUS. The plates buckled in compression and devel-oped tension field action, as is characteristic of SPSW systems(Fig. 15).

Although detailed results are not presented here due to spaceconstraints, the pier concept proved adequate to resist vehicle col-lision. For tsunami (including both surge forces and debris impactforces and hydrostatic, hydrodynamic, and debris impact forces),the plates yielded and acted as sacrificial elements, and the boun-dary frame remained stable without developing any plastic hinges.For blast, the plates offered little resistance and were sacrificial, andfinite element analysis showed that the hollow tubes used for theboundary frame could be vulnerable, which led to the recommen-dation to use CFSTs for columns (with the design concept remain-ing identical otherwise) (Fig. 16).

Non-Engineering Challenges to Multihazard Design

The preceding summary of existing research on multihazard designhighlighted—or inferred, in many instances—the needs for furtherknowledge in many subdisciplines of this broad field. However,note that nationwide implementation of multihazard design facessome significant challenges. One major challenge is that whenretrofit activities take place, they typically are done to address asingle hazard, and generally are done only in regions where anacute awareness exists of that specific hazard. Significantly less (orno) such work is done in other regions where awareness is low,even if the risk and consequence of a disaster is high. As a conse-quence of this prevailing stove-pipe approach to disaster mitigation,immediately following a disaster measures are enacted regionally toenhance resilience for the hazard that has led to the latest disaster,

121.9m(400 ft)

46.3m(152 ft)

37.8m(124 ft)

37.8m(124 ft)

9.55m (31.3 ft)

Fig. 14. Four-column multihazard bridge box-pier concept, with transverse elevation, three-dimensional rendering of typical pier and deck segment,and exploded view showing plates welded on tubular pier frame

Fig. 15. Global view (and exploded cut-out views) of finite-element model (a) before and (b) after pushover analyses, showing development ofdiagonal tension field action in steel plates

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and relaxation of these measures inevitably occurs when a longperiod has elapsed since the last occurrence. Arguably, good andbad outcomes result from this approach: where such actions aretaken, they can be highly effective in enhancing resilience againstthat specific hazard regionally, but they could be of limited effec-tiveness beyond that (and even decrease resilience against otherhazards). Another challenge is that some hazards generally arenot considered in structural design unless specifically requestedby owners (e.g., blast). The preceding examples are provided onlyto underscore that multiple societal challenges exist that go beyondengineering issues dealing with single hazards, and that these ef-fectively compound in complexity when dealing with multihazarddesign.

Finally, note that although multihazard design can contributeto the attainment of more-resilient communities, infrastructureresilience is another broad and completely different topic in itself(e.g., Cimellaro 2016), and is beyond the scope of this paper. How-ever, the authors believe that advances in both multihazard designand engineering resilience are necessary to mitigate future potentialdisasters effectively.

Conclusions

As demonstrated in this paper, multihazard design addresses anumber of issues, ranging from the interactions and interdependen-cies of hazards to the development of new design concepts to en-sure inherently efficient outcomes that suitably address the oftenconflicting demands related to multiple hazards. This paper pro-vided an extensive overview of the accomplishments in this field,mostly from work conducted in the recent decades, highlightingsome gaps and inconsistencies in current state of knowledge, rec-ognizing that there exists much additional work that could not beincluded here due to space constrains (or that simply accidentallyescaped the attention of the authors).

It is hoped that the multiple examples cited in this work willinspire readers to undertake research in one or many of the areasdescribed here, given that multihazard is a relatively new endeavorand that the bulk of the research and development work needed toachieve multihazard resistant infrastructure remains to be done.

Acknowledgments

This state-of-the-art paper summarizes the work conducted by alarge number of authors funded by an equally broad group of fed-eral, state, public, and private sponsors. Although listing them all isimpractical here, the authors sincerely and collectively thank themfor support. However, the opinion expressed here are those of theauthors alone. As members of the ASCE SEI Technical Committeeon Multihazard Mitigation, the authors would also like to acknowl-edge all members and friends of the committee as this paper in partbuilds off of discussions on pressing issues of multihazard designand mitigation that emanated from the committee.

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