London Playbook PM: The campaign is real (well … most of it) (2024)

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By EMILIO CASALICCHIO

PRESENTED BY

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Good afternoon.

THURSDAY CHEAT SHEET

— The election campaign is in full swing — and the Tories suffered a fake workers gaffe.

— Nigel Farage revealed the plans he’s made … for himself.

— Wrangling in parliament about which bills will be ditched is still ongoing.

— Whitehall chief Simon Case finally squirmed under the harsh lights of the Covid probe.

— There was some much-needed good news for the Tories on net migration.

**A message from Lloyds Banking Group:Too many people in the UK are currently homeless or living in poor conditions. That’s why we’re working to create a more inclusive and sustainable future where everyone has access to a safe and affordable home. Find out more.**

TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

THE CAMPAIGN IS REAL: The election campaign has splurged out across the U.K. — as the last-ditch wrangling over which Conservative laws get dumped heads into its final stretch before parliament closes down.

It’s been a long first 24 hours: Rishi Sunak is soon to appear at his final event (and his fourth) of the first full 24 hours of the campaign — in Scotland with Scottish Conservatives boss Douglas Ross. The PM will be chatting to media and doing further regional broadcast clips.

Will he take more questions from Conservative councillors pretending to be members of the public? Because that’s what he did first thing this morning. Playbook PM was in the warehouse near Derby when Sunak appeared for a Q&A with workers for a logistics firm. Huge stacks of biscuit boxes loomed in the background as he gave a short stump speech and took a few questions.

We are real people, honest: The small assembled crowd was billed via CCHQ as “staff” and most were wearing either hi-vis jackets with the firm name West Transport on the back or well-tailored suits (for the boss class running the operation.) A campaign aide prompted the crowd to clap as Sunak strode in with local MP Maggie Throup, who gave him a quick introduction as he sat to one side with a fixed smile. Sunak flew through his main election points in the center of the assembled circle as a gaggle of reporters, a few Conservative aides and some protective heavies watched on from the sidelines.

This is a reeeeeeal event: There were questions about the cost of living, the NHS, and the Rwanda scheme, among others. Sunak admitted on health that “the area where I wish we’d made more progress is waiting lists,” his voice bouncing off the scuffed concrete floor and echoing around the warehouse. One bloke in hi-vis nodded in response to most of Sunak’s points, and one asked the PM how he looks after his mental health. Lots of them wanted selfies with the talent afterwards.

But but but: The eagle-eyed Adam Bienkov from Byline Times revealed soon after that the event wasn’t quite the straight-talking, honest politics it was billed as. He spotted not one but two Conservative councillors in the crowd, who despite not working for the firm were wearing its branded hi-vis vests. One was the Rwanda questioner and the other was the bloke who asked about economics. Read the full writeup here.

Amusing response: “We do not control who asks questions — anyone can try and ask one,” a Conservative official said. Which regular readers of Playbook PM will know is not true at all. Your author was prepped with a question and a well-trained shoulder muscle for keeping a hand in the air for 30 minutes straight, as usual, but Sunak didn’t take any questions from the press, who had traveled hours to be there. CCHQ also wouldn’t explain how people who don’t work for the firm managed to get into the event. Conservative frontbencher Laura Trott might know. She’s on the evening broadcast round along with “average performer,” h/t Johnny Mercer, Mark Harper (timings below.)

It’s also amusing because … Playbook PM spoke to one of the *actual* West Transport workers after the event. Mick Shergold insisted staff weren’t told what to ask or how to behave beforehand. He said workers were told last Thursday the PM would appear at an event this morning (a further data point about how planned the election announcement was) and had spent the last 24 hours clearing the warehouse and having it swept by government security services. Shergold has been waiting months for a prostate appointment. He didn’t comment on who those new dudes wearing the same work uniform were. He might have assumed they were fresh logistics recruits.

Around the same time … Labour Leader Keir Starmer was launching his own campaign at an event in Gillingham, Kent. A host of activists of all ages — ranging from a baby to pensioners — surrounded Starmer, his deputy Angela Rayner and Gillingham candidate Naushabah Khan as the Labour boss delivered his stump speech. “This election is for you because you now have the power and chance to end the chaos, to turn the page and to rebuild Britain,” Starmer said.

Swings and roundabouts: No councillors pretending to be normal people asked questions at the Labour event … but that’s because no-one did. Most of the press wasn’t even invited, although Labour HQ insists it was a hiccup. There’s a full clip of the launch here. The hope is for fewer hiccups once the Labour plan is nailed down, with a shadow Cabinet meeting tomorrow to distribute the marching orders, the New Statesman’s Freddie Hayward revealed. Frontbencher Nick Thomas-Symonds is on the evening broadcast round along with his colleague Wes Streeting (timings below).

Still cranking up … Labour still needs to select a good chunk of its candidates, although campaign boss Pat McFadden wouldn’t tell Times Radio what the missing number was. The PolHome team have more on the candidate selection rush here. The Tories still need to appoint a bunch too, to be fair, and Reform are well behind.

Speaking of Reform: The upstarts staged their own campaign launch around 11 a.m. in Westminster, of all places. Establishment, much? The big news was Nigel Farage won’t stand at this election, because the Brit-loving nationalist thinks the U.S. vote in November is more important. Writeup here. Don’t forget he’s been offered a no doubt well paid job on the Donald Trump campaign. Farage will quit his GB News show, so he can lend his mate Richard Tice a hand over the next few weeks, which is generous. Tice is on the broadcast round this evening (timings below.)

Onto the afternoon: Rishi Sunak later turned up in Wales, where his attempt at talking about the footie fell a little flat. Clip here. It’s well worth reading this piece from Ruth Mosalski from Wales Online about how stage managed the whole thing was.

COMING OUT IN THE WASH

STUBBED OUT … FOR NOW: So much for Rishi Sunak’s big legacy. His ban on anyone born after January 2009 buying cigarettes looks dead, Playbook’s Dan Bloom writes in. Two people confirmed theMail’s scoopthat the Tobacco and Vapes Bill won’t be rushed through before the election, despite Labour support, because there’s no way to have a free vote as part of the “wash up” process. Labour says it will push through a ban if it wins on July 4.

Rinse and repeat: The Victims and Prisoners Bill, Digital Markets Bill and Post Office (Horizon System) Offences Bill have all already cleared the wash up today. Not everyone’s happy, though. Peers defeated a bid to quash another 13 Post Office convictions that had been through the Court of Appeal.

Also set to pass soon: The Finance Bill and the Media Bill — but the latter’s bid to repeal a post-Leveson press law hated by Fleet Street has rattled some peers. It would get rid of section 40 of the Crime and Courts Act, which would make many publishers pay both sides’ legal costs even when they win in court. Labour’s David Lipsey complained it was being “smuggled through,” adding an “elected dictatorship of two parties — my own, alas, and the Conservatives” will push it through “for their own political advantage.” Peers were still debating a compromise a few minutes ago, so we’ll know soon if it hits a roadblock.

But but but:Hopes for other bills not yet listed (like renters and leasehold) fade with every passing hour.Afootball regulator is already dead, and ditching others on the list could open the Tories up to further attacks about broken promises.For starters, Figen Murray, whose son Martyn Hett died in the Manchester Arena attack, told the BBC’s World at One show the PM told her “a lie” when he said just a couple of hours before the election he would pass the law she’s calling for to help prevent similar attacks in future. That law won’t now be passed before the election.

SIMON SAYS … THANK F*** NO-ONE IS WATCHING THIS

SIMON FINALLY SAYS:After delays due to his health, the Covid inquiry finally had its time with Simon Case — and the top official squirmed on multiple occasions as he accounted for his less than diplomatic language in awkward WhatsApp messages we’ve already seen, POLITICO’s Andrew McDonald writes in from the media center at inquiry HQ.

Chuckling Case: Case allowed himself a nervous chuckle as Chair Heather Hallett thanked him for coming along at what she described as an “extremely busy time for you.” Thanks to that whole election thing, Case’s much-anticipated session was always likely to go a bit under the radar, and only a handful of journos and cameras turned up to the inquiry in person. Even the protesters mostly stayed away.

First squirm of the day: “They are very raw, in the moment, human expressions,” Case explained of his WhatsApp messages, after inquiry inquisitor Hugo Keith deadpanned about his being “a prolific user of WhatsApp.” Case admitted he owes a few apologies for the ways he expressed himself. Catch-up on some of the most awkward onesvia this piece from POLITICO ace Noah Keate this morning.

New texts klaxon: In one set of texts with ex-No. 10 press chief Jack Doyle it was revealed Case told Boris Johnson to get the hell off WhatsApp. In another, with then-Cabinet Office chief Helen MacNamara, Case lamented the toxic culture in the department: “Crisis + pygmies = toxic behaviors,” he summarized … and in another to MacNamara, he said former Scots FM Nicola Sturgeon was “showing [the government] how to do it,” in terms of explaining decisions to the public.

If you wanna read ‘em: The inquiry will be publishing Case’s written statement and all the WhatsApps it referencedat some point this evening here.

The Case against the CabOff: Hitting out at dysfunction in government, Case told the inquiry “good people were just being smashed to pieces” as they tried to fight the pandemic.

But of course… in his senior roles, Case was right at the top of the system he talked about — and Keith gave him a hard time for moaning about systems he was ostensibly in charge of. “Getting it right and getting the structures in place for what government has to do … that was your job, that was your primary function” Keith put to Case. The official argued things improved a bit under his leadership, obvs.

On BoJo: Case rowed back a bit on his previous criticisms of his old boss Boris Johnson (“Trump-Bolsonaro levels of mad and dangerous,” “basically feral,”) and gave a long and clearly-rehearsed monologue about the former PM’s psyche. Podcaster Alex Andreouclipped it up, if you’re interested.

Much more importantly …it was revealed Case privately told Johnson to stop “agreeing all the time” with Rishi Sunak, who tended to back quicker exits from lockdown than the medical experts who had Johnson’s ear. Case argued he was making the point that as PM, Johnson had more things to balance than Sunak did, as the chancellor was focused solely on the economics.

Also more importantly …when it came to the botched process around Britain’s entrance into lockdown II in fall 2020, Case admitted the government “didn’t come up with the right answer” as it tried to balance the economy with saving lives. And, getting a touch emotional, he said there were “some dark days when it felt that we just couldn’t get it right.” According to Keith, Case’s written witness statement says the failings under Johnson amounted to “the worst governing ever seen.” Oof.

DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

TORY CAMPAIGN CATNIP: The Tories were rejoicing at official figures showing a 10 percent fall in net migration in 2023, down from a record high in 2022, alongside a 25 percent fall in visa applications so far in 2024. “This shows the plan under Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives is working but there is more to do,” Home Secretary James Cleverly said. “That is why we must stick to the plan, not go back to square one.”

Cutting the stats: Labour noted migration is still up compared with the promises made at the last election and said the Tories “can’t even manage to clean up their own chaos.”

But but but: In his motormouthed Radio 4 interview this morning, Sunak made clear he isn’t expecting illegal migrant deportation flights to Rwanda to take off before the election. “The flights will go in July, and that’s a choice at this election,” he told Nick Robinson, noting Labour has pledged to scrap the scheme outright. Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the admission shows “this whole Rwanda scheme has been a con from start to finish.”

Now watch this: Sunak was pressed on the likelihood his Rwanda deportations won’t happen before people vote, in an interview with Gary Gibbon for Channel 4. The PM maintained the plans and logistics for the fights were in place … so … what could possibly go wrong? Clip here.

For good measure: The Home Office this afternoon announced a crackdown on rogue student visa firms in response to the recent Migration Advisory Committee report on the issue … which means the mooted cut in student visa numbers some had been pushing for has not materialized.

WHAT THE TORIES WANT TO TALK ABOUT: NHS waiting times in Labour-run Wales reached a record high, new official stats show.

IN LABOUR LAND: The Labour left is pushing for Diane Abbott (suspended from the party whip at the moment) to be allowed to stand as a Labour MP. Team Keir Starmer insists it’s an independent process and has nothing to do with them, but are no doubt aware bringing Abbott back into the fold means lots of Conservative attacks on how the opposition hasn’t changed since the Jeremy Corbyn era. Abbott is one of those characters lots of Labour target voters aren’t superfans of. Playbook hears Abbott had been hoping to have the whip restored before gracefully announcing her retirement — which would presumably solve lots of problems.

Speaking of Corbyn … we’re still waiting to find out if he’ll stand as an independent in his Islington North seat. There’s chatter he’s going for it, but his team would neither confirm or deny to Playbook PM.

HOME UNDER THE HAMMER: Outgoing Tory MPAdam Afriyieappeared in court to be told by bankruptcy trustees he must leave his £3.5 million constituency mansion in Windsor within a fortnight despite wishing to remain there until August 2028 when all four of his children will be adults.The Times has the full details.

Reminder:Afriyie, once estimated to be worth £100 million, was declared bankrupt in 2022 after a court heard he owed £1 million to HMRC and £700,000 to Barclays bank. Ouch.

27 DAYS LATER:Former Scottish Health Secretary Michael Matheson faces a 27-sitting day suspension from Holyrood and could lose his salary for 54 days over an almost £11,000 iPad roaming chargeinitiallyfunded by the taxpayercaused byhis children watching football during a family holiday. The ruling from the Scottish Parliament’sStandards, Procedures and Public Appointments Committeewill go before MSPs, with Scottish First Minister John Swinney saying he would not support the recommendation as the process had been “prejudiced.”Sky has more.

ESSEX MAN LATEST: A man from Essex has been charged with assisting Russian intelligence. The Beeb has more.

SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS

WELL WORTH BOOKMARKING: The New Statesman’s Rachel Cunliffe started a thread of the “most batsh*t” PR emails attempting to ride the crest of the election wave (a.k.a. use the news hook to sell their rubbish stories.) Should be a fun one to keep a watch over.

Oh, and … here are the London Dungeon political gnomes. So their barrel-scraping tactic works. We are the true suckers, along with the ticketed public, of course.

SUNSHINE AFTER THE RAIN: Rishi Sunak was owning his calling-the-election-in-the-p***ing-rain fail this morning after social media was all over it with send-ups. “It definitely was a bit wet but I’m not a fair weather politician,” he told Radio 4. Ba doom bap! He said he did it because it’s a British tradition for PMs to make important statements on the steps of Downing Street come rain or shine.

Oh, and … Sunak offered Twitter a bit of love back with a pic of Maggie Throup giving him a brolly for the next time he has to (ahem) make a big statement on the Downing Street steps.

MORE CONSERVATIVE FUN: The Tories have been going for it with the election memes. Quite amusing, TBF.

IF YOU WATCH ONE THING TODAY: Make it this excellent interview answer from Conservative minister Steve Baker about what he’ll do if he loses his seat at the election.

AROUND THE WORLD

IN ASIA: China mobilized land and rocket forces and sent warships and military jets into waters off Taiwan in what it called “punishment” for new Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te describing the island as a “sovereign and independent country” — the Times has a writeup.

IN NEW CALEDONIA: French President Emmanuel Macron described rioting in the French-Pacific territory of New Caledoniaas an “unprecedented insurrection movement” that nobody saw coming, adding his government would “go until the end” to restore calm — via the BBC.

IN MEXICO:At least nine people died in the city of San Pedro Garza García after a stage at a campaign event for long-shot presidential candidate Jorge Álvarez Máynez collapsed in heavy winds — Bloomberg has more.

IN RUSSIA: The Kremlin escalated its crackdown on Russia’s top military ranks by detaining Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin on suspicion of taking bribes. It marks the fourth arrest in the last month of a high-ranking military official — my colleague Ellen Boonen has further information.

**A message from Lloyds Banking Group:Affordable, sustainable and high-quality homes are the foundation of a healthy society and prosperous economy. Yet too many people cannot access the housing they need. We’re calling for one million more homes to be made available for social rent in the next decade. To do this we must unlock land and overcome the challenges posed by the planning system. Giving Homes England a more pro-active role in co-ordinating the acquisition and assembly of public and private land for social housing, is one option. Alongside this, local planning departments must have the capability to support councils to deliver social housing at scale. If the public and private sectors work in partnership to drive innovative solutions, then the aspiration of one million more homes for social rent can become a much-needed reality. Find out more.**

TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News(5 p.m.), BBC News at Sixand Channel 4 News(7 p.m.) all focus on the general election.

Ben Kentish at Drive(LBC, until 6 p.m.):Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting (5.05 p.m.) … NHS Confederation CEO Matthew Taylor (5.35 p.m.) … University of Oxford Economist Linda Yueh (5.50 p.m.).

BBC PM(Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Transport Secretary Mark Harper …Wes Streeting.

News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.):Labour peer Michael Levy (5.30 p.m.) … former Downing Street Director of Comms Guto Harri (5.45 p.m.) … Ipsos Chief Executive Kelly Beaver (6.45 p.m.).

Drive with John Pienaar(Times Radio, 5 p.m.): Chief Secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott (5.05 p.m.) … Reform UK MP Lee Anderson (5.20 p.m.) … Shadow Minister without Portfolio Nick Thomas-Symonds (5.35 p.m.) … Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael (6.40 p.m.) … More in Common’s U.K. Director Luke Tryl (6.45 p.m.).

The News Agents(Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Author Salman Rushdie.

Tonight With Andrew Marr(LBC, 6 p.m.): Laura Trott … Nick Thomas-Symonds … Reform UK Leader Richard Tice … former CIA Director Leon Panetta.

Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.):Science Minister Andrew Griffith (7.10 p.m.) … Richard Tice (7.20 p.m.) … Nick Thomas-Symonds (7.30 p.m.).

Question Time(BBC iPlayer 8 p.m. and BBC One, 10.40 p.m.):Environment Minister Mark Spencer … Shadow Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson … Lib Dem Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper … commentator Tim Montgomerie.

TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Neil Henderson.

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): The FT’s Jim Pickard and the i’s Jane Merrick … Sky News(10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.):The Courier’s David Clegg and the Sunday Telegraph’s Camilla Turner.

TOMORROW’S WORLD

OVERNIGHT: The National Audit Office has a report out about the crown court backlog.

ALSO OVERNIGHT: The joint committee on human rights will publish a report into proposals for a Hillsborough Law putting a legal obligation on public servants to tell the truth.

COST OF LIVING: Fuels regulator Ofgem announces its latest energy price cap for July to September at 7 a.m.

TO COINCIDE … the government is expected to launch a new support package for people struggling with their bills.

THERE’S AN ELECTION CAMPAIGN GOING ON: Leaders will be darting around the U.K. on the hunt for votes.

ON THE HORIZON: Post Office CEO Paula Vennells is back at the Horizon probe for her third session from 10 a.m.

IN THE COMMONS: MPs sit for the final rush through of legislation before the election.

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are thelunchmenus on the estate tomorrow:The Debate:Chinese five spice pulled pork wrap with pickled carrot, mooli, and red onion; Persian paprika and cumin haddock with pomegranate and sultana quinoa; vegan burger in a wholemeal bap with garlic aioli … Terrace Cafeteria:Cheddar cheese and tomato frittata with cabbage, coleslaw and roast chickpea salad; fish and chips; Cumberland sausage with mash and cabbage in a Yorkshire pudding with gravy …River Restaurant: Veggie burger and chips with coleslaw; sausage roll with chips and beans; fish and chips.

SO LONG, FAREWELL:Work and Pensions MinisterJo Churchillannounced she won’t be standing at the election, as did Deputy Commons SpeakerEleanor Laingand Rail MinisterHuw Merriman, bringing the number of retiring Tories closer to 70. Here are the announcements fromChurchill,LaingandMerriman.

And on that note … veteran Labour MP Margaret Hodge penned a heartfelt so-long letter. Who will take on the kleptocrats now??

SPOTTED I: TV peer for winding people up Alan Sugar made a sudden appearance in the Lords this morning following a long absence. Nothing to do with the fact he was due to be kicked out at dissolution for not attending for six months, we’re sure. Still, better to come once in a blue moon than week in week out to claim the expenses and sit in the tea rooms doing no legislating or scrutinizing.

SPOTTED II: A behatted (natch) George Galloway sitting on his lonesome in Portcullis House. Will his latest stint as an MP last … barely four months?

BEST WISHES: To Conservative MP David Duguid, who is in hospital recovering from an illness affecting his spine. He still plans to stand again. Get well soon!

ALL THAT GLITTERS CAN BE GOLD: The jacket Keir Starmer wore when a conference protester covered him in glitter was auctioned off for £2,700 at a Labour Women’s Network event last night, with all the proceeds going to the Jo Cox Foundation.

NEW GIG I:The Sunday Times’ Hannah Al-Othmanis off to the Guardian as its Northern correspondent, saying she was looking forward to a “quiet and relaxing first few weeks in the job!”Here’s the tweet.

NEW GIG II:Former PoliticsHome EditorLaura Silverjoins the Sunday Times as a deputy news editor, saying it will be a “perfectly uneventful time in news.”Here’s the announcement.

NEW GIG III: Former OBR boss Robert Chote has been appointed the next president of Trinity College, Oxford. Announcement here.

SIMPLE QUESTIONS PLAYBOOK PM CAN’T GET ANSWERS TO:When will Boris Johnson start producinghis own GB News content?

Note: It seems likely Rishi Sunak will never appoint an anti-corruption adviser if he doesn’t return to Downing Street, so we’ve dropped that one from the list.

WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: On his Substack, political academic Ben Ansell argues Sunak has bounced his MPs into the “Leeroy Jenkins” election. Which is one of those internet things where if you know, you know.

Also … the damning Duncan Robinson column in the Economist about the snap election move. “The decision is impulsive, illogical and entirely in keeping with the manner in which Mr Sunak has governed,” Robinson argues. “For a man who says he has a plan, Mr Sunak operates in a rather last-minute way … Mr Sunak’s slogan is “stick with the plan” but he has stuck with very little.”

Bear in mind: In his Radio 4 interview this morning, Sunak said he called the election now because inflation was “back down to normal” and the macroeconomics are looking up so “now is the right time for us to have this conversation.” In his latest podcast with Ed Balls, birthday boy George Osborne said Sunak decided to go for an election now after the local elections and amid fears nothing is working for the Tories in their attempts to shift the polls.

ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On May 23 2019 the Conservatives dropped to their worst national election result since 1832 when they won just 9.1 percent of the vote at the European Parliament elections. On the same date in 2022, ITV published photos of then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson drinking in Downing Street during Covid lockdowns, while on the same date in 2023 the Cabinet Office referred him to the police over fresh allegations of lockdown rule breaches.

WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Sam Blewett.

THANKS TO: My editor Rosa Prince, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.